BackRurban seats emerge as new trump card for BJP
BJP has tapped into Narendra Modi's popularity and growing aspirations among the people in rural-urban areas
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New Delhi: The recent assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra show that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reclaimed its space in urban constituencies and is now rapidly adding rurban areas—seats that have a rural administrative structure but mimic urban living—to its sphere of influence.
In Haryana, the BJP increased its rural and urban (rurban) seats in the assembly from three in 2009 to 27 in 2014. In Maharashtra, over the same period, the party more than doubled its presence in urban and rurban constituencies from 25 to 57 seats.
This is politically significant.
Traditionally strong in urban constituencies, the BJP had vacated this space to the Congress and regional rivals in two successive general elections in 2004 and 2009. Beginning with the 16th general election this year, the BJP, which has constructed its electoral message around growing aspirations, going by the recent electoral outcomes, seems to be reconnecting with these population segments, particularly the younger demography.
“The old middle-class was urban. The new aspirational class can be defined as rural-urban. It is a mentality. It is a claim to opportunity. It is the opening up of a dream that the BJP is showing," said Shiv Visvanathan, social scientist and professor at Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, Sonepat, in a telephonic conversation.
The Census defines these rurban centres as Census Towns—administratively they continue to be governed by village panchayats, while they mimic urban centres in lifestyle. According to Census 2011, including rurban areas, 31.2% of the population is urbanized—in other words little under one in three Indians has an urban profile; it was one in four in Census 1991.
“They (rural urban towns) are going to defeat the old model because here people feel new opportunities that make democracies useful. There is an explosion of opportunities which the BJP is just triggering, which began much earlier with Narasimha Rao; but (Prime Minister) Narendra Modi is now channelizing these aspirations democratically and that is triggering a tremendous message. We can criticize it—I’m very critical of it—but it’s very clear that it is there," Visvanathan said.
Senior leaders of the BJP admit that the party had consciously given tickets in rural and semi-rural areas to exploit Modi’s popularity with voters in these areas.
In the Haryana elections, the BJP had given 17 tickets to outsiders or people who had joined the BJP from other parties, out of which 15 tickets were given in rural areas of the state. The BJP won 11 out of these 15 seats. Many of these constituencies adjoin Delhi, which suggests that there could be a spillover to the BJP’s advantage as and when assembly elections are conducted in the capital.
Similarly, the party had campaigned extensively in rural and semi-rural areas of Maharashtra. It is not a coincidence that the party’s digital video campaign was largely concentrated in such areas.
“BJP wanted to take the message of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to everyone. We wanted to make development and corruption the talking points in the elections," said a senior BJP leader from Maharashtra.
Out of the 123 seats won by the BJP in Maharashtra, 39 are those that the BJP has won for the first time and 84 were retained.
The biggest gain for the BJP in Maharashtra has been in the Vidarbha region which is represented by 62 seats in the assembly. The party won 43 of them, compared to 19 in the last poll.
“This new urban imagination is going to be a big player. It is not a rural-urban divide but it’s a rural-urban hyphen," Visvanathan said.
pretika.k@livemint.com
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