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Business News/ Politics / Policy/  Voters’ fatigue looms over UPA
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Voters’ fatigue looms over UPA

UPA's diminished prospects in the election have been attributed to anti-incumbency or voter fatigue with parties in power

The Congress seems to be facing an erosion in its capacity to retain the political loyalty of socially disadvantaged communities and women—two sections that have traditionally backed India’s oldest political party. Photo: Nitin Kanotra/Hindustan TimesPremium
The Congress seems to be facing an erosion in its capacity to retain the political loyalty of socially disadvantaged communities and women—two sections that have traditionally backed India’s oldest political party. Photo: Nitin Kanotra/Hindustan Times

New Delhi: Across India, there is anger against the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The diminished prospects of UPA, as reflected in a series of opinion polls, in the ongoing general election have been attributed to anti-incumbency or voter fatigue with the existing parties in power.

The main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has been trying to fan the flames of popular resentment against the policies and actions of the government into mass rage against the ruling party.

Arguments among political observers are many. While one section argues that the policies and actions of the government have affected the lives of ordinary people, turning them against the ruling party, another section says the electorate is looking for better options that will cater to the rising aspirations—the aspirations of the new middle class.

Undoubtedly, the unabated rise in the prices of essential commodities and the series of corruption scandals that have plagued UPA 2 in particular have disillusioned the electorate. The Congress, having enjoyed an even support-base across the country, seems to be facing an erosion in its capacity to retain the political loyalty of socially disadvantaged communities and women—two sections that have traditionally backed India’s oldest political party.

Elections over the last two decades have shown that voters prefer a change at the centre, marking a shift in pattern—up until the early 1970s, incumbent governments used to win at both the state and national levels.

UPA did win a second term but that was mainly due to the disarray in the main opposition BJP, the failure of regional parties to come up with a credible alternative and because the poor liked the government’s welfare schemes. The 65,000 crore farm loan waiver, announced in February 2008, and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme launched in 2006 drew rural voters to the Congress.

Additionally, the Right to Information (RTI) law earned the party the votes of the middle classes.

Economic indicators during UPA’s 10 years are thought to be better than the outcomes under the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Finance minister P Chidambaram has pointed out that growth accelerated under UPA, the middle class earned and saved more, the prices fetched by farm produce went up, foreign investment increased and poverty decreased.

Nearly 138 million people have come out of poverty in the last decade.

Whether voters too will take the 10-year view is hard to tell—at the moment, the prospects for UPA certainly look to be bleak. Ever since the Manmohan Singh-led government began its second term, it has been entangled in a plethora of high-profile corruption scandals.

These include irregularities in the allocation of 2G spectrum, in which the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) has estimated a notional loss to the exchequer of 1.76 trillion; wrongdoing in the allotment of coal blocks, which the CAG found had cost the nation 1.86 trillion; misappropriation of funds in the organization of the 2010 Commonwealth Games; and the violation of rules in the allotment of Adarsh Housing Society apartments in Mumbai.

The sheer size of the amounts involved created an anti-government feeling among ordinary voters, already reeling under rising prices of essential commodities.

The scandals and controversies left no one in the Congress party untouched—not even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, two leaders who had enjoyed a clean image among the public.

Vinoj Abraham of the Centre for Development Studies in Thiruvananthapuram defines anti-incumbency in this context as a combination of people’s resentment against corruption and the leadership’s inability to address it.

“The corruption has reached higher levels (of government and the party). The prime minister, who did not come across as a dynamic and assertive leader, has failed to contain the corruption in the government and control his own ministers... This has also created a perception of policy paralysis," Abraham said.

The resentment found an articulation in the movement led by anti-graft activist Anna Hazare, whose hunger strike demanding a stringent anti-corruption Bill drew strong support, especially among young people in towns and cities.

The movement stirred up the middle class, fed up of rampant corruption at all levels, and brought tens of thousands of people to the streets. It also gave the opposition a handy cause to mobilize against the government. The middle class found a platform to vent their resentment.

“The emergence of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as a political force, which has campaigned on a single plank—anti-corruption—has given a political shape to the anti-incumbency feeling," Abraham said.

It was the AAP’s campaign that helped the BJP’s re-emergence, he added. AAP, led by activist Arvind Kejriwal, was an offshoot of the anti-corruption movement and gave the ruling Congress a jolt in the Delhi Assembly elections in December 2013, ejecting its 15-year-old government.

Three-term chief minister Sheila Dikshit’s loss to Kejriwal marked one of the lowest points for the Congress and brought home the magnitude of the anti-incumbency facing the UPA at the general election.

Ironically, it was the widespread use of RTI, a law enacted by the Congress to empower citizens to seek information from government departments, that contributed to the anti-corruption movement, said Rajeev Bhargava, senior fellow at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

Social activists too said the Act has had a tremendous impact in promoting transparency and accountability by helping people hold authorities to account.

UPA’s inability to create jobs for the rising number of educated youth also disappointed young voters, a significant demography—52% of voters are in the age group between 18 and 40 years. While the previous BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) created 60.7 million jobs in five years from 1999, UPA’s contribution during the period of 2004-05 to 2011-12 was just 15.4 million.

Politically, the Congress has been either careless or overconfident about its electoral prospects.

Being in power for a decade without an effective and united opposition seems to have pushed the 128-year-old party into a state of disintegration similar to the post-Emergency period.

The party leadership failed to anticipate the widespread acceptance that Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi would go on to win among the electorate as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate.

“Congress felt if Modi becomes the PM candidate it could become an advantage for it because the BJP could be isolated. Their calculation was wrong," Bhargava said. Congress leaders initially dismissed the chances of Modi leading a strong offensive against the UPA, citing the “communal" image he had.

Modi was accused of failing to fulfil his responsibility when communal violence swept Gujarat in 2002. The violence, in which at least 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, were killed, still casts a shadow on his image.

However, contrary to Congress leaders’ expectations, the 63-year-old leader, who projects Gujarat as a model of development for India, has pushed the BJP to the front of the race in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Some political experts also attribute voter disappointment to high growth. When the economy grows rapidly in a developing country it puts too much pressure on the system —because growth leads to rising aspirations and the government’s inability to address them could create frustration.

“The anti-incumbency is to be unpacked... When the economy is doing reasonably well aspirations would go up and it is impossible to address it effectively. One should be constantly agile to address the aspirations. Rising expectations have undermined the (UPA’s) reasonably good performance," Bhargava said.

He also argued that part of the resentment or the anti- incumbency has been manufactured with a “fantastic and well-crafted campaign".

“The Congress’ offence is that it has been lackadaisical and complacent. Media at large, may be because of the prime minister’s inability (to enforce) the right intervention, and also because of a robust campaign in favour of Modi, has given out this perception that the UPA’s last 10 years have been regressive."

India’s swelling middle class—projected to rise from 160 million today to 267 million by 2016, according to the National Council of Applied Economic Research—could be another factor in increasing expectations.

Satisfying their aspirations could present the biggest challenge to the next government. However, forecasts for the economy are bright and the new government could ride on that, at least in the initial period.

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Published: 17 Apr 2014, 11:46 PM IST
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