The outlook for 14 of the 24 countries mapped by the Eurasia Group’s Global Political Risk Index is neutral or positive, an indication that things look better for these countries in September than they did in August when the outlook for 13 was negative.
India’s score remains constant at 62 and while it has dropped a rank from 11 to 12, its position, in the middle of the 24-country listing has remained constant at between 11 and 13 for much of the past year. The outlook for India for the month of September was positive. The US has sent the Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement to Congress (again, after the index was compiled) and while some analysts say this will only be passed in 2009, there are others who claim that the US will accelerate its clearing which could come even this month.
Global Political Risk Index (Graphic)
Pakistan, where the PPP’s Asif Zardari won the presidential elections on 6 September (after the index was compiled in late August), continues to remain at the bottom of the listing. The country faces the significant political risk of continued bad blood between the PPP and the PML-N, the two political parties that have emerged as the centres of power after Pervez Musharraf’s exit.
The index, compiled by Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, is a composite measure of a country’s government, society, security and economy. While the score indicates stability or instability for the month gone by (August, in this case), the outlook (positive, negative or neutral) indicates which way the scores will likely move.
Mint has partnered with the Eurasia Group for GPRI and runs this every month. Mint carried the previous GPRI on 5 August.
For that and for previous editions of the index, go to www.livemint.com/gpri
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