Demonetisation’s impact by the numbers
New Delhi: More than a month after the Narendra Modi government announced its decision to demonetise Rs500 and Rs1,000 currency notes, the numbers and data coming from various sectors of the economy reveal a mixed impact.
Here are a set of numbers to help you understand how the Narendra Modi government’s to demonetise high-value currency notes is panning out/impacting the Indian economy:
• 1.9% – the overall industrial output contracted by 1.9%, as revealed by the Industrial production data for October 2016, the last point before demonetisation. Since the cash crunch impact is widely expected to persist for two quarters, there is little chance that industrial growth will improve in the second half of 2016-17.
• 2.11% – food inflation in November softened to 2.11% from 3.32% a month ago, according to data released by the Central Statistics Office.
• 3.63% – is India’s retail inflation which softened for the fourth consecutive months in November from 4.2% a month ago as a squeeze in cash availability impacted prices of perishable commodities. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is targeting to keep retail inflation under 5% in the fourth quarter and 4% within a band of 2% on either side in the medium term.
• 7% – is the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for India for this fiscal. The multilateral regional bank revised it to 7% from the previously forecast 7.4%. A slowdown in India made the ADB revise regional growth outlook to 5.6%, below its previous projection of 5.7% for 2016.
• 7.8% – the ADB has retained India’s GDP growth rate for the next fiscal saying that the impact of demonetisation would be temporary.
• 10.8% – The ratio of currency to GDP in 2015-16. It averaged 8.4% during 1975-2000, crossed 10% for the first time in 2002-03 and has remained above this level since then.
• 58% – the volume of the reserved railways tickets booked through cashless modes of payment like net banking, cards and e-wallets on the Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) website.
• 5% – the discount the Railways will give on online payment for services such as e-catering and booking of retiring rooms.
• 0.5% – the discount the Railways will give on season tickets purchased digitally with effect from 1 January 2017 to encourage people to use cashless modes of payment.
• 60% – Taking together the deposit, withdrawal and exchange of cash between 9 November and 16 December, the amount available with public for carrying out transactions has fallen 60%.
• 91% – of urban households have their Aadhaar card linked to their bank accounts, the ICE 360° survey shows.
• 99% – of households in both rural and urban India have at least one member with a bank account, the ICE 360° survey shows.
• 465 – The number of points of sale machines deployed by the Railways at 217 locations across India to promote digital payments. Additionally, the Railways aims to install 10,000 PoS machines at all the passengers reservation centres, major parcel offices and suburban stations in order to facilitate cashless payment by 31 December.
• Rs5.70 crore – the amount of cash in new currency notes of Rs2,000 denomination seized by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) from an alleged hawala operator K. V. Veerendra’s premises in Karanataka.
• Rs340 crore – The estimated cost at which Niti Aayog, the government think-tank body, is implementing two schemes (Lucky Grahak Yojana for consumers and Digi-dhan Vyapar Yojana for merchants).
• Rs61,000 crore – the volume by which the bank credit has shrunk during the fortnight to 25 November, shows the RBI data.
• Rs66,000 crore – the amount paid back to banks during the fortnight to 25 November by borrowers, including some default accounts.
• Rs4 trillion – the banks have released back into the system as on 5 December.
• Rs12.4 trillion – is the amount the banks have received as deposits till 10 December since demoentisation, showed the RBI data. The banks had collected Rs11.55 trillion as on 6 December and Rs8.44 trillion as on 27 November.
• Rs14.2 trillion – worth currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs1,000 denominations were in circulation as on 31 March 2016, as per the RBI data.
• Rs72.92 trillion – the outstanding credit of banking system.
• 19.71 – was the number of ATMs per 100,000 adults in India in 2015, as per the Financial Access Survey conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This number stood at 8.85 at the end of 2011 and at 17.80 at the end of 2014.
• 61.88 – ATMs per 1,000 sq km in India, which is higher than Brazil (21.82), Russia (12.67) and South Africa (22.21). China has 92.32 ATMs per 1,000 sq km.