BackBJP cannot bank solely on anti-Congress sentiment to capture power
Despite indications of rejection of Congress brand of politics and rising popularity of Narendra Modi, the BJP has a fatiguing climb ahead
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The recent elections to four states saw a massive anti-Congress wave. Of course, these states do not represent the entire country. However, the nature of the mandate is such that it has diluted all kinds of traditionally established caste and class barriers. Therefore, it is very much likely that the mood—now regional—could be seen at the national level as well.
Besides, though it is true that state issues and leadership have played a major role in this polls, one cannot deny the Narendra Modi factor in optimizing the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) performance this time around. Whether one calls it a Modi wave or chooses to use the more subtle, Modi undercurrent, it was there. Which means anti-Congress sentiments complemented by the Modi factor could ensure that the BJP will be the most likely gainer in 2014, at least in those states where there is a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. There are 12 such states. These states account for 113 seats, out of which the BJP had won 52 seats in the 2009 general elections. If the existing mood prevails and the BJP manages to give its optimum performance, these 12 states have the potential to fetch them 97 or more seats, a net gain of 45 seats over its 2009 performance. The optimum performance for the BJP has been estimated by taking its best showing in the last four Lok Sabha elections.
Therefore, the BJP has the potential to win 130 or more seats of the total 212 seats from 17 such states where it will be in direct contest with the Congress on its own or with its allies. Remember, these 130 seats do not include the tally of its National Democratic Alliance partners.
If we look at the big picture, this analysis suggests that the anti-Congress sentiments alone are not good enough for the BJP to capture power in Delhi. Therefore, it has to go a long way before it can realize its mission of securing 272 seats in the Lok Sabha which will give it a majority in the lower House of Parliament. Notably, Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP has just 10 MPs, is the biggest challenge for the saffron brigade. Its best performance here was 52 seats in the 1998 general election. A repetition of 1998 may not be easy, but if Narendra Modi’s rallies are any indication, the BJP can hope to substantially improve upon its 2009 tally, but it will have to strike the right social combination of upper castes and the other backward classes, who have completely deserted the party after Kalyan Singh’s first exit from the party. Bihar is another hurdle where a repetition or an improvement over 2009 is easier said than done.
In Karnataka, Yeddyurappa’s homecoming will be the single-most important factor that will determine if the BJP can repeat its excellent showing of 2009. The BJP cannot hope to gain anything out of anti-Congress sentiments in the critical states of Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh unless it thrashes out a strategy to attract post-poll allies from these states. The bottomline is: despite clear indications of the rejection of the Congress brand of politics and the rising popularity of the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, the BJP has a fatiguing climb ahead in 2014.
Devendra Kumar is a psephologist and director of Research and Development Initiative.
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