BackGovt prepares for deficient rainfall during monsoon
The weather forecast by the ministry of earth sciences could deepen worries for the economy and agriculture
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New Delhi: The June-September monsoon may be worse than expected, the ministry of earth sciences said on Monday in a forecast that could deepen worries for the economy.
The sombre forecast came after President Pranab Mukherjee sounded the alert in his address to the joint session of the Parliament on Monday—the new government, he said, is preparing contingency plans in case a poor monsoon affects food production.
“Overall, June-September rainfall across the country will be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) which is below average (90 to 96% of LPA)," said Jitendra Singh, minister of state for earth sciences.
“The implications of this forecast will happen, especially when it comes to crops. It is not easy to make a pointed prediction for farmers; it depends on how well-spread the rainfall is," Singh added.
In the earlier long range forecast issued on 24 April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that rainfall during June-September would be 95% of the 50-year average or LPA. Monsoon rainfall is considered to be normal when it is 96-104% of LPA.
IMD officials also said that there is now more than a 70% likelihood of the El Nino weather phenomenon developing during the monsoon, probably in July-end or first week of August.
“The cabinet secretary has started preparing for the below-normal monsoon by holding meetings with the concerned ministries," said Shailesh Nayak, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
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The southwest monsoon, which accounts for 70% of India’s annual rainfall, is the main source of irrigation for 235 million farmers, according to Bloomberg. Below average rainfall could affect agricultural production, put pressure on already high food inflation and hold back attempts to revive economic growth that has slumped to 10-year lows.
“El Nino is 0.5 degrees above normal, and temperature is likely to slowly increase upto 1 to 1.5 degrees," said L.S. Rathore, director general, meteorology, IMD.
El Nino, a weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, is usually accompanied by below average rainfall in the monsoon season. According to IMD officials, conditions in the Pacific Ocean seem to be on the threshold of being qualified as a weak El Nino.
On the other hand, conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean are warmer than normal, which rules out any possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole—another weather phenomenon—during the monsoon, which in turn can minimize the effects of the El Nino in India. So far this month, India has received 44% deficit monsoon rainfall after the monsoon made landfall in Kerala on 6 June, five days later than normal.
“The government’s job is not to get perturbed. It should start making preparations for what is evident, like water shortage. Late-sown varieties of seeds need to be available and the government needs to be sure that adequate power is available and diesel is subsidized," said Abhijit Sen, a member of the Planning Commission. “If needed, the government should follow its normal drought routine, and operate its existing stocks properly," he added.
IMD’s Rathore also said that there was going to be no relief from the current heat wave that has gripped parts of northern, north-western and central India. But, Rathore added, “there may be some temporary respite on the 12th of June".
Meanwhile, agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh issued a statement saying that his ministry was prepared for low rainfall.
The department of agriculture and cooperation said measures that it will take in the event of deficit rainfall or drought include introduction of a diesel subsidy scheme for providing protective irrigation to standing crops in rainfall deficit areas, and increasing the ceiling on seeds subsidy under various central government schemes in order to partially compensate farmers for expenses in resowing and/or purchasing drought-tolerant varieties of seeds.
The department will also consider rescheduling crop loans and providing interest subvention on rescheduled loans in drought-affected areas and additional budget allocation under the Accelerated Fodder Development Programme to rainfall-deficit states.
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