BackMonsoon starts withdrawing from north-west region
Monsoon withdraws from parts of west Rajasthan, Kutch, north Arabian Sea
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New Delhi: The south-west monsoon has begun retreating and has withdrawn from parts of west Rajasthan, Kutch and north Arabian Sea. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the withdrawal line passes through Ganganagar, Nagaur, Jodhpur and Naliya.
Earlier, the weather office had estimated the monsoon to start withdrawing from 1 September. However, in the past few years, the monsoon has begun retreating by mid-September and withdraws completely from the country by mid-October.
The criteria for declaring the monsoon’s withdrawal from an area include no rainfall for five consecutive days and considerable reduction in moisture content.
“Monsoon will slowly withdraw from the rest of the country, and there will be dry conditions and anti-cyclonic flow and only some isolated rainfall. Then by 16-20 October, the wind pattern will change and monsoon will become north-east monsoon, and rainfall will mostly be restricted to south peninsular India," said D.S. Pai, head of the long-range forecasting division at the weather office in Pune.
The monsoon arrived five days late in the country and then halted advance, leading to worrying rainfall deficits in June and July.
While the monsoon deficit was 43% in June, it narrowed to 21% in July. The states that suffered the most were in the north-west. Central India recovered significantly after a pick-up in rainfall in the latter half of the monsoon season. As on Tuesday, the season’s overall monsoon deficit was 11%, but the past two days have seen above-average rainfall.
Late onset of rains delayed sowing of kharif seeds across the country, but better rainfall in August and September helped most of the areas. However, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh have declared a drought. Western Uttar Pradesh recorded a rainfall deficit of 54%, eastern Uttar Pradesh 41%, and Haryana 65% till the end of August.
The monsoon is crucial for India, where over half the cultivated land depends on rainfall for irrigation. Large areas of western and central India receive over 90% of their total annual rainfall during the period.
The first advance estimates released by the ministry of agriculture on Friday projected this year’s kharif crop at 120.27 million tonnes (mt)—which is around 7% lower than the 129.24 mt harvested last year. The June-October cropping season, known as kharif, is the country’s main agricultural season and is mostly dependent on the annual south-west monsoon.
For the next two-three days, north-east India will see heavy rainfall, after which rainfall will reduce in the region and will be restricted to peninsular India.
According to the second long range forecast by IMD, the June-September rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 87% of the long-period average, and there is a 68% probability for the season’s rainfall over the country as a whole to be deficient at less than 90% of the long period average.
Sayantan Bera contributed to this story.
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