Mumbai: We expect a 25 basis points hike in the CRR in the policy review meeting on 29 July. A 50 basis point hike, however, is unlikely and the markets have not factored this yet. However, given the macro-economic slowdown, the RBI may not resort to hiking the repo rate.
Going forward, inflation should moderate to lower levels owing to the base effect. Softening oil prices will also help stem inflation by year-end though this is uncertain.