Met dept forecasts less monsoon rains

Met dept forecasts less monsoon rains
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First Published: Fri, Jun 29 2007. 05 38 PM IST
Updated: Fri, Jun 29 2007. 05 38 PM IST
PTI
New Delhi: With the development of unfavourable weather conditions, the Meteorological Department on 29 June forecast less than average rainfall for the current season.
In its update of the long range monsoon forecast, the Met said the country as a whole is expected to receive 93% seasonal rainfall of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the season. In April, the weather scientists had said the country would receive 95% rains of the Long Period Average.
The adverse affect on the monsoon rains is because of the warming of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific region, the Met department said.
“For the past few months the dynamical models have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred,” it said in a statement here.
The updated forecast has a model error of 4%.
The Met said that the month of July is likely to receive 95% rainfall of the LPA.
The July forecast has a model error of 9%, which means that the country could receive either 109% if conditions become favourable but in case of adverse weather the rainfall could be 86% of the LPA.
Accumulated seasonal rainfall over the country between 1 and 27 June was 107% of the LPA, which means 7% excess.
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First Published: Fri, Jun 29 2007. 05 38 PM IST