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Business News/ Industry / Rain deficit at 4% but dry spell ahead
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Rain deficit at 4% but dry spell ahead

Skymet revises monsoon forecast to 98% of long-period average, IMD official says rainfall has not been well-distributed

While the rainfall deficit this season has narrowed to 4%, the rainfall has not been well-distributed, says an IMD official. Photo: HTPremium
While the rainfall deficit this season has narrowed to 4%, the rainfall has not been well-distributed, says an IMD official. Photo: HT

New Delhi: The rain deficit in July stands at 15% of the long-period average (LPA), weather forecasting agencies said on Thursday.

However, rain deficit for the season is a mere 4%, after heavy rains in some parts of the country in the second half of July.

Meanwhile, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd said that taking cognizance of the July rain and the updated August and September forecast, the monsoon this year will be 98% of the LPA. While this is still a normal monsoon forecast, it is lower than the agency’s April forecast of 102%.

In August, the forecaster said, a major quantum of the rainfall is likely to be received during the first fortnight. “We expect a break between 15 and 20 August, a revival between the 20 and 24 August, and another small circulation at the end of the month," said Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet.

July and August account for 62% of the monsoon rainfall in India, and much of the planting of crops takes place in these two months. While the rainfall deficit this season has narrowed to 4%, the rainfall has not been well-distributed—localized in parts, such as Gujarat, Rajasthan and West Bengal, said an official with the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

“This was primarily because of the depression in Rajasthan, which caused heavy rainfall in the surrounding area and the deep depression, which will now become a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal," said D.S. Pai, chief of long-range forecasting division at the IMD.

According to the IMD, while northwest India received 12% more than average and central India received normal rainfall, peninsular and northeast India received 18% below-average and 8% less-than-average rainfall, respectively.

It said that in August, rainfall is likely to be normal to above-normal over central and northwest India till 9 August, normal to above-normal over northeast and adjoining east between 5 and 14 August.

The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, noted in its latest update that the El Niño phenomenon continues to develop as weakened (or reversed) trade winds have resulted in further warming over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Skymet, in its revised monsoon update, also observed that an El Niño episode correlates well with deficient rainfall in north and northwest India and normal or above-normal rainfall in peninsular India.

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Published: 31 Jul 2015, 12:42 AM IST
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