BackAssembly polls shape up as a mini referendum on Modi’s policies
The implications of the assembly polls in five states, including Uttar Pradesh, in February and March have turned into a Modi versus the rest battle
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New Delhi: According to a well-worn political adage, the passage to national power starts in Uttar Pradesh, a continent-sized state of 204 million people in the Hindi-speaking heartland of India.
That adage proved correct in the 2014 general election. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) returned to power, becoming the first in 30 years to win a majority in Parliament on its own.
With the indefatigable Narendra Modi spearheading its campaign, the party won 71 of the 80 seats Uttar Pradesh fills in the Lok Sabha, or lower House.
Uttar Pradesh will vote again in a seven-phase election spread between 11 February and 8 March, this time to decide who will rule it for the next five years. Four other states—Punjab and Goa (4 February), Uttarakhand (15 February) and Manipur (4, 8 March)—will also go to the polls.
The verdict will be known on 11 March, the Election Commission of India (ECI) said on 4 January, when it announced the poll dates.
Like in 2014, the electoral contest will essentially be Modi versus the rest.
A key poll issue is the 8 November demonetisation of high-value currency notes which he billed as a war on black economy, counterfeit notes and terror finance and a way of pushing India towards a cashless society.
Modi’s opponents say it ended up hurting the poor the most as an ensuing cash crunch led to job losses in the informal economy and forced farmers to sell their first bountiful produce in three years at rock-bottom prices.
Indeed, Modi and the BJP have the most to gain, or lose.
The party is in power in Goa and is part of a coalition government with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab. And, after its 2015 defeat in the eastern state of Bihar, it needs to win Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand to retain the edge it gained in 2014 in the Hindi heartland.
Halfway through his five-year term, Modi is staring at his biggest electoral challenge since leading the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to national power in 2014 after back-to-back defeats in 2004 and 2009.
“The stakes are extremely high for Modi because, at present, the BJP is Modi and Modi is the BJP. People will analyse the results keeping in mind the demonetisation decision taken by the centre. So, personally, Modi has a lot at stake," said Sanjay Kumar, director of the New Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
Apart from serving as a referendum on the scrapping of high-value currency notes, which in one stroke invalidated 86% of the currency in circulation by value, the elections, especially the Uttar Pradesh vote, will be a verdict on government policies and performance in the first half of its five-year term.
The 29 September “surgical strikes" by the army on terror camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir will be a highlight of the BJP campaign.
If the BJP is able to wrest Uttar Pradesh after a gap of 14 years, it will not just give a boost to the BJP, but will send a clear message to all political parties that the people have supported the economic, political and anti-corruption steps taken by the government under Modi.
“Uttar Pradesh is the largest state, it has 17% of the population of the entire country. So, any policy decision taken by the government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be reflected in the Uttar Pradesh polls. A good performance in Uttar Pradesh will be a pat on the back of the government and party organization," a senior BJP leader from Uttar Pradesh said, requesting anonymity.
Indeed, the outcome of the election to Uttar Pradesh’s 403-member assembly could well be key to the 2019 general election.
“There is no other state in India that has 80 Lok Sabha seats; so, elections in Uttar Pradesh are always important. It is crucial for the BJP because the party had done well under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the party will want to repeat its performance," said a second BJP leader, also requesting anonymity.
“The entire 2018 will be, in a way, a preparation for the 2019 general election; so, a victory in Uttar Pradesh will be a morale booster for the party. It will be very comforting for the BJP to know that the party has won in Uttar Pradesh before the general election," he added.
The findings of one opinion poll would have heartened the party.
The poll conducted by India Today-Axis between October and December predicted that the BJP would win 206-216 seats and take power in Uttar Pradesh.
The state’s ruling Samajwadi (socialist) Party, which is embroiled in a family feud, was forecast to win 92-97 seats, followed by former chief minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj (masses) Party with 79-85.
The poll gave the Congress party 5-9 seats, much lower than its 2012 tally of 28.
In the run-up to the election, the Samajwadi Party has been wracked by internal tumult. A power struggle between chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, son of party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, and his paternal uncle Shivpal Yadav, which is still being played out, has bruised the party.
Elsewhere, the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP alliance is battling the anti-incumbency factor in Punjab after 10 years in power.
The India Today-Axis opinion poll has forecast that the Congress party will return to power by winning 56-62 seats in the 117-member Punjab assembly.
In Uttarakhand, which will witness another face-off between the BJP and the Congress, the former has the edge, India Today-Axis found. The state, now ruled by the Congress, is tilting the BJP way, the poll found, predicting that the latter would win 41-46 seats in the 70-member assembly.
The BJP would also retain the former Portuguese territory of Goa by wining 20-24 seats in the 40-member assembly, it forecast.
That leaves Manipur, where the BJP won neither of the two Lok Sabha seats in 2014, but where it is set to form its second state government in the sensitive northeastern frontier region by capturing 31-35 seats in the 60-member assembly, ousting the Congress, according to the findings of the India Today-Axis poll in October.
By not projecting a chief ministerial candidate in any of the states, Modi has put his personal prestige at stake by taking the helm of the BJP’s campaign.
“The stakes are very high for the BJP, and it can be understood from the fact that Modi is leading the party’s campaign in these states. If they win Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa, then the party is going to project it as a win for Modi and an endorsement of the government’s policy decisions particularly demonetisation," said Centre for the Study of Developing Societies’ Sanjay Kumar.
“After its defeat in Bihar and Delhi, a section of the cadre was demoralized. If the party does not fare well in Uttar Pradesh, a key Hindi heartland state, there could be a feeling within the party that the wind is not in their favour. On the other hand, if they manage to win UP, it will be a great morale-booster for party cadre," he added.
For the 131-year-old Congress and its vice-president Rahul Gandhi, who is leading the party’s campaign, a loss of both Manipur and Uttarakhand—if the opinion poll findings indeed come true—would be another setback, although a win in Punjab would provide it a measure of comfort.
“In a very realistic assessment, we could be struggling to put up a decent performance in Uttar Pradesh. We started with a high-pitched campaign, but it fizzled out soon to an extent that weeks before the polls, we are still considering an alliance with the SP. We expect to perform better in Punjab and Uttarakhand, in both of which we are in power," a senior Congress leader said on condition of anonymity.
With the SP busy firefighting its internal troubles, talk of it forming an alliance with the Congress and possibly the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) has been silenced for now.
Another party whose performance will be closely watched is the Aam Aadmi Party of Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, which is contesting the polls in Punjab and Goa in an attempt to take its footprint beyond the national capital.
Young voters, women and people from the socially marginalized sections—all aspiring for a better life—and what they think of the governance they have experienced will hold the key to the outcome of the elections, political analysts say.
“Unemployment is going to be a common issue across all the states, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand. But the one common theme which is going to string all these five states together is governance. People will not only assess the incumbent state governments on the promise of good governance but also take note of how the NDA’s two-and-a-half years at the centre have been," said Manisha Priyam, a New Delhi-based political analyst.
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