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Business News/ Industry / Rice, corn harvests seen declining on weak monsoon rain
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Rice, corn harvests seen declining on weak monsoon rain

Agriculture ministry's first advance estimates project this year's summer crop at 120.27 mt, 7% below last year's

An estimated 833 million people out of the 1.2 billion population depend on agriculture for their livelihood and the sector accounts for 14% of the nation’s GDP. Photo: MintPremium
An estimated 833 million people out of the 1.2 billion population depend on agriculture for their livelihood and the sector accounts for 14% of the nation’s GDP. Photo: Mint

New Delhi: The worst fears of fallout from this year’s deficient monsoon are coming true. The government has for the first time conceded that there will be a setback to the kharif, or summer, crop.

The first advance estimates released by the ministry of agriculture on Friday project this year’s kharif crop at 120.27 million tonnes (mt)—around 7% lower than the 129.24 mt harvested last year.

The June-October cropping season, known as kharif, is the country’s main agricultural season and is mostly dependent on the annual southwest monsoon.

Not only did the monsoon start late this year, its spread was uneven. Haryana and Uttar Pradesh (UP) have declared a drought.

The first advance kharif estimate and rabi targets together are expected to aggregate to 251.5 mt of foodgrain output in 2014-15. That’s 13.2 mt lower than the record foodgrain production of 264.7 mt achieved last year.

The agriculture ministry expects kharif production to decline across all crop categories.

The June-September monsoon has been the worst for the country’s bread basket states—particularly Haryana and Western UP. While cumulative rain deficit is 55% for Haryana, Western UP and Punjab recorded a deficit of 54% and 47%, respectively.

On 2 September, Haryana became the first state to declare a drought in all 21 of its districts. On 16 September, UP declared 44 of its 75 districts drought-hit. Together, Haryana and UP have sought central assistance of 10,891 crore for drought relief. Last month, Punjab sought 2,330 crore as drought relief from the Centre, but stopped short of declaring a drought.

Production of rice is set to dip by 4%—from 91.69 mt in 2013-14 to 88.02 mt this year. The impact is likely to be worst on the output of coarse cereals, expected to drop by over 14% from 31.53 mt last year to 27.05 mt this season.

While sowing of rice is almost the same as last year, the area under coarse cereals has dropped by 1.86 million hectares this year due to the delayed arrival of monsoon, which had an impact on the sowing of jowar, bajra and maize in states like Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Rajasthan.

Due to a decline in the area under tur and moong cultivation, production of kharif pulses is expected to be 5.2 mt against 6.02 mt in 2013-14.

Because of a decline in the area under groundnut cultivation and productivity in Gujarat, and lower output of soya bean, total oilseeds production is estimated to drop by 12%—from 22.4 mt in 2013-14 to 19.66 mt this year.

Production of cash crops cotton and sugar cane is expected to drop by 5.3% and 2%, respectively. Interestingly, the expected dip in the production of cotton is despite a 10% increase in its acreage in the kharif season.

One economist said India may yet weather the decline in kharif output.

“Despite the estimated drop in kharif production, the situation may not be bleak for two reasons. International food prices have dipped significantly and this will lead to lower exports of foodgrains from India. Secondly, we have ample stocks—offloading them in the market will ease supply constraints and inflationary pressures," said Ramesh Chand, director of the National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research.

Alluding to the deficient monsoon and its impact on kharif production, agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh said the estimated output is a major achievement that had been made possible by proactive schemes his ministry undertook—like subsidies for diesel, seeds and fodder production—alongside efforts by farmers and cooperation of state governments.

The minister was speaking at an event organized to showcase the initiatives and achievements of the ministry in the first 100 days of the new government.

“In some rain deficit parts of the country, there is still a possibility of adverse impact on rabi crops due to lack of adequate soil moisture," he said.

In the coming rabi season, which starts in mid-November and ends in April, the government has set a production target of 131.5 mt—94 mt of wheat, 14 mt of rice, 12.5 mt of pulses and 11 mt of oilseeds.

According to the farm ministry, the dip in kharif production is despite improved sowing numbers, which picked up with a narrowing rain deficit, primarily due to late sowing, which will hurt productivity.

Kharif sowing is now 3% less than last year’s acreage. As on Friday, the overall rainfall deficit stands at 12% of the long period average, down from a high of 43% in June and 21% in July.

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Published: 19 Sep 2014, 05:06 PM IST
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