Dubai: The funeral of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Sultan on Tuesday sets the stage for King Abdullah to appoint a new heir, widely expected to be veteran interior minister Prince Nayef, a move that would emphasize stability in the world’s top oil exporter.
At stake is the direction of a major United States (US) ally attempting to reconcile its conservative traditions with the needs of a modern economy and a young, increasingly outward-looking population.
“In the political system this is an important event, but the system is designed to ensure continuity,” said Jarmo Kotilaine, chief economist at National Commercial Bank in Jeddah. “Economic policy is put in place over a much longer period and is not likely to change at all.”
In his six-year-old reign, King Abdullah has pushed changes aimed at creating jobs by liberalizing markets and loosening the grip of religious hardliners over education and social policy.
The coffin of SaudiArabia’s Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al-Saud arrives at Riyadh Military Air Base in Riyadh. Photo: Reuters
The death of Crown Prince Sultan, who was also defence minister, might also lead to a wider cabinet reshuffle.
Saudi Arabia, which dominates world oil markets and holds profound influence over Muslims through its guardianship of Islam’s holiest sites in Mecca and Medina, faces turbulence in its neighbors and a confrontation with regional rival Iran.
Prince Nayef is sometimes described by Saudi liberals as an anti-reform conservative, who is likely to take a cautious approach to social and political change, while viewing foreign policy through the lens of national security.
However, former diplomats to Riyadh and some analysts say the man who has served as interior minister since 1975 may show a more pragmatic side as crown prince - and eventually as king.
“Nayef had some time with Sultan’s long illness to run himself in as crown prince and he has acted on behalf of the king,” said one former diplomat. “He has become acquainted with authority across the board.”
The body of Sultan, who died of colon cancer in New York on Saturday, was flown back to Riyadh on Monday, accompanied by his younger brother Prince Salman, who may now play a more prominent role in the conservative Islamic kingdom.
Hundreds of men, including King Abdullah and other members of the Saud ruling family, gathered on the airport runway as the coffin was lowered into an ambulance and driven away.
Funeral prayers will be held for the prince in mosques across Saudi Arabia after the Islamic afternoon prayer, when Sultan’s body will be taken for burial.
Foreign dignitaries, including US vice president Joe Biden, Middle Eastern foreign ministers and members of European and Gulf royal families will visit Riyadh this week to pay condolences to King Abdullah.
The seniority of the delegations demonstrates Sultan’s prominent role as defence minister over five decades when he used multi-billion-dollar arms purchases to strengthen Saudi armed forces and cement ties with Western allies.
King Abdullah, who is in day-to-day charge of Saudi Arabia despite being in his late 80s and suffering back problems that needed surgery last week, must also name a new defence minister.
One possible candidate is Prince Khaled bin Sultan, a son of the late crown prince who headed Saudi forces during the 1991 Gulf War and has been a deputy defence minister for 10 years.
The job could also go to Riyadh governor Prince Salman, seen as the next most senior royal after the king and Prince Nayef.
Given Sultan’s long illness, Prince Nayef, born in 1933, has for many years been seen as the likely new crown prince.
“We need young blood,” said a Jeddah resident in his 50s. “If they appoint another crown prince from (this generation) we will find ourselves in the same position in a few years because they are all old and we worry that the young ones may later struggle over power.”
Nayef’s conservative credentials as head of a ministry that has arrested political activists have disquieted liberal Saudis. He was also quoted soon after the 11 September 2001 attacks on the US as doubting that any of his compatriots had been involved when 15 of the 19 hijackers were in fact Saudis.
But Saudi-watchers said they anticipated few immediate national policy shifts if Nayef becomes crown prince. “We do not expect any major or sudden changes in Saudi oil or foreign policy simply because the Saudi monarchy appears extremely cognizant of domestic challenges and their dependence on hydrocarbons to meet these challenges,” said a research note issued by RBS.
During the long illness of Sultan and absences of the king, Nayef stood in for his elder brothers, meeting world leaders and managing the kingdom’s day-to-day affairs.
“I don’t think there will be a substantial change of direction,” said Hossein Shobokshi, a Saudi columnist. “The country has always opted for the non-surprising method. So we don’t see any big decisions in policy.”