India’s position in the Global Political Risk Index is slipping, the country’s ranking in February is the same as it has been for much of the past year, No. 12. However, the outlook for India remains negative. The reason for this—much like the reason for the country’s score dropping a bit in January—is economic.
Analysts at the Eurasia Group, the risk management firm that creates the index, and who tabulated the scores before the Union Budget was presented on 29 February, expected the bill to see an increase in government spending. Given that the Budget saw the announcement of a huge farm loan waiver, the analysts are likely to take a dim view of India’s economic stability when they tabulate the March scores.
The index is a composite measure of the state of a country’s government, society, security, and economy. While the score indicates stability or instability for the month in question (February in this case), the outlook (positive, negative or neutral as the case may be, and for the month of March) provides an indication of which way the scores will likely move. Pakistan remains at the bottom of the 24-country listing, although its outlook has turned positive following the opposition parties’ 18 February victory.
Mint has partnered with Eurasia Group for GPRI and runs this every month. Mint carried the previous GPRI on 6 February. For that, and for previous editions of the index go to www.livemint.com/gprieight.htm.
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