Active Stocks
Thu Mar 28 2024 15:59:33
  1. Tata Steel share price
  2. 155.90 2.00%
  1. ICICI Bank share price
  2. 1,095.75 1.08%
  1. HDFC Bank share price
  2. 1,448.20 0.52%
  1. ITC share price
  2. 428.55 0.13%
  1. Power Grid Corporation Of India share price
  2. 277.05 2.21%
Business News/ Politics / Policy/  J&K elections: BJP, PDP gain amid discontent over National Conference
BackBack

J&K elections: BJP, PDP gain amid discontent over National Conference

With the Omar Abdullah govt all but out of the reckoning, election results now hinges on the regional divide between Jammu and Kashmir valley

A torn BJP banner in Srinagar. With the regional divide between Jammu and Kashmir valley, the situation is more favourable for the BJP in Jammu region to make a dent in state politics for the first time. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/MintPremium
A torn BJP banner in Srinagar. With the regional divide between Jammu and Kashmir valley, the situation is more favourable for the BJP in Jammu region to make a dent in state politics for the first time. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/Mint

No one visiting Kashmir can miss noticing the enthusiasm around the ongoing state assembly elections. Turnout, one indicator of electoral enthusiasm, in the first three phases was 72%, 71% and 58%, respectively. Not only was this an improvement over the last assembly elections, it was also substantially more than the 25% the state averaged in the general election that concluded in May.

In Jammu, Kashmir’s twin, this enthusiasm has always been part of the run-up in every election. Interviews across various parts of the Kashmir valley reveal that voters are driven by their desire to be free of the incessant violence and embrace a secure life defined around good governance, economic development and, most importantly, jobs.

Violence has claimed more than 43,000 lives since 1988; in the latest incident, 21 people died in an exchange between the Army and terrorists who crossed over from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Unlike earlier elections, this one takes place in the backdrop of a dramatic sweep by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), inspired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 16th general election. And as audaciously as he had challenged traditional wisdom in the general election, Modi is bidding for what at one time was unthinkable in Jammu and Kashmir—a BJP government in the state.

Together, this makes this election a compelling event, the obvious question being whether this will be a turning point in the violent history of a state, over which India and Pakistan have fought three wars.

Anti-incumbency

The easiest trend to discern in the state is the waning electoral fortunes of the National Conference (NC), which at one time held unquestioned sway. Not only are people generally disillusioned with the NC, but the incumbent chief minister Omar Abdullah is particularly unpopular. Their biggest grouse against the third generation of the Abdullah family is that he was never there when the state needed him.

It is almost two years now, but the people are yet to forgive Abdullah for his failure to prevent the hanging of Afzal Guru, one of the terrorists convicted for planning the armed attack on Indian Parliament in 2001. He was hanged in Delhi’s Tihar jail in February 2013. Similarly, they have also not been able to put behind them the unrest and series of stone pelting incidents in 2010 in which 120 civilians were killed in clashes with security forces.

“What kind of chief minister is Omar Abdullah? He told the people of Kashmir that he was not even aware of the decision of the centre to hang Afzal Guru. He even failed to get the body of Afzal Guru. There is no transparency in the government and there is rampant corruption. This government has lost the faith of people and they are coming out to vote because people are facing difficulties and want to change their lives," said 80-year-old Ghulam Qadir, who is a representative of people in Hazratbal constituency and acts as an interface between the government and people.

“The government doesn’t act on its own, but we have to get work done by pushing the government to act. People want jobs, power, education, better hospitals, road network, the government should become more transparent. People in Srinagar don’t get 24X7 power supply even during the winter when it snows," he added.

With the unemployment rate of Jammu and Kashmir at 3.8% in 2012-13, higher than the national average of 2.1%, according to labour ministry data, people complain that the state government has done little to boost employment opportunities in the state.

“I have been a school teacher for 13 years now. I have done Masters in Arts (MA) and Bachelor of Education (B.Ed.) but I continue to teach in a local school for a salary of 90 per day. If the teacher has no future and employment opportunities, what is the fate of students who are going to pass out from school," said Ahmed Wani, 37-year-old resident of Anantnag constituency.

Political analysts are not surprised that the CM’s stock has fallen so much so fast.

“The National Conference government had been facing resentment from people every year for the last six years. There is a strong anti-incumbency wave against the government. The lack of rehabilitation after the floods is the most recent example but deaths of 120 people during stone pelting incidents in 2010 also angered the people. The politics of Kashmir valley has always been between National Conference and PDP. It is because of anti-incumbency, which will benefit PDP the most," said Ellora Puri of University of Jammu and Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

Advantage PDP

The NC’s loss should logically be the gain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the second most important political force in Kashmir. The fate of the NC government is to be decided by the state’s 7.23 million voters in five phases of election from 25 November to 20 December.

PDP, which had also won three seats in the Lok Sabha polls, continues to be a popular force. Not only does it enjoy a better connect with the people, it is also being helped by the fact that the party’s candidates are local leaders backed by former chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and his daughter Mehbooba Mufti. Interestingly, both the NC and the Congress party who were alliance partners in United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the centre failed to win a single seat from Jammu and Kashmir during the general election.

Struggling to make ends meet even after earning a master’s degree in computer application (MCA) from Srinagar, 30-year-old Wasim Mushtaq believes change is a must in the ongoing assembly election because people are tired of not finding work and absence of government during the recent floods in Kashmir.

“Unemployment is a major concern which has not been addressed. Why should I leave Kashmir to find work? Why can’t I get work here? Kashmir is my motherland, I want to stay here. My house was under 10-feet of water during the recent floods but the chief minister was missing and the government was invisible. I have got no compensation from government, change is a must this time," said Wasim Mushtaq, who now runs a small provision store after failing to secure a government job.

Mushtaq is not alone.

“It’s been three months and I continue to live with my family in a tent. My mother who is 86 years old also lives with me in the tent. Where is the government? It will start snowing in a few weeks, why is the government not coming forward to help me? We have not got any compensation," said 66-years-old Abdul Rasheed Bhat, a retired assistant sales and excise officer from Indian Telephone Industries Ltd who lives in tent in Amirakadal constituency.

The PDP, which had won 23 seats in the last assembly election, is hoping to improve its tally. The mood of the people can also be gauged from the increase in voter turnout in the three phases of elections. In the 2008 elections, the voter turnout was recorded at 61.1%; so far turnout has exceeded this.

With former chief minister Farooq Abdullah out of the campaign for health reasons, the NC, the PDP’s principal opponent, is only further weakened. The Congress party, which was also part of the coalition government in the state, is also facing anti-incumbency although the two parties had split in July this year, immediately after the debacle in the Lok Sabha elections.

Political analysts believe that the PDP is only gaining in the areas of Kashmir because of the NC’s failure to capitalize on the opportunity it was given in the 2008 assembly election. “The politics of Kashmir is only between NC and PDP. These two are the only prominent parties which have influence. PDP will not only gain in Kashmir valley but also in some pockets of Jammu which are its stronghold," Puri added.

The X-factor

Jammu and Kashmir has not given a clear mandate to any political party since the 1996 assembly elections, which was swept by the National Conference with 57 seats. However, the BJP believes that Modi’s leadership should propel it to power, very much like what he had achieved in the general election.

The BJP, which had launched Mission 44—the winning mark in the 87-member Jammu and Kashmir assembly—hoping to form a government in the state on its own is likely fall short. The party had only won 11 seats in the 2008 assembly elections.

Senior leaders of the BJP are hoping to capture most of the 37 seats in the Jammu region.

“BJP is gaining because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the politics of Jammu region has always been slightly towards right of centre. BJP will definitely improve its position but infighting in the political party will affect its performance in the region," added Puri.

The BJP, which had won 3 out of the 6 Lok Sabha seats in general election in April-May, is struggling to maintain the same momentum because of a lack of popular faces in the state. In order to defeat the popular perception that the BJP is only limited to Jammu region, the party has fielded 32 Muslim candidates, including 25 in the Kashmir valley.

“Jammu will vote only for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The candidate is not important, people are voting for Modi," said Virender Kumar, a 63-year-old cloth merchant in Jammu-East constituency.

With the regional divide between Jammu and Kashmir valley, the situation is more favourable for the BJP in Jammu region to make a dent in state politics for the first time. The party is also concentrating on the four seats in Ladakh region as the benefit of anti-incumbency in Kashmir region will mainly benefit the PDP. Kashmir has 46 assembly seats.

However, the battle in the Jammu region will not be a walkover for the BJP because there are some pockets that continue to remain strongholds of the Congress, National Conference and the PDP. Due to lack of a strong state leader for the BJP, people are more comfortable with the local leaders of other political parties who are more influential.

“We had voted for Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha election but this is a small election. People feel comfortable with MLAs who are available for them and whom they know personally," said Ashwini Kumar, a 52-year-old retired soldier in RS Pura constituency, which is adjacent to the internal border with Pakistan.

Unlock a world of Benefits! From insightful newsletters to real-time stock tracking, breaking news and a personalized newsfeed – it's all here, just a click away! Login Now!

Catch all the Politics News and Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates & Live Business News.
More Less
Published: 12 Dec 2014, 12:56 AM IST
Next Story footLogo
Recommended For You
Switch to the Mint app for fast and personalized news - Get App