Mumbai: Inflation is likely to peak at around 13% over the next two months before gradually moderating to around 8.5-9% by end-this fiscal, economists said.
The country’s economic growth too would moderate below the earlier-forecasted 8% to around the 7.5-7.8% level in FY 09, they said.
“I expect inflation to peak at around 12.5-13% in the next two months before beginning to decline. But double-digit inflation will continue atleast for the next four to five months,” Yes Bank’s Chief Economist, Shubhada Rao, told PTI here.
Global fuel prices present the most concern to policy-makers, the economists said. “Inflation will be contingent upon oil prices,” Crisil’s Director and Principal Economist, D K Joshi, said.
“Prices of products such as aviation turbine fuel and naphtha have shot up 40 % year-on-year,” Enam Securities’ Chief Economist, Sachidanand Shukla, said.
While inflation would peak at around 12.5-13%, Joshi expected the yearly average inflation rate to be around the 8.5-9%.
This figure, again, is much higher than the 5.5% projected by some economists earlier.
Rao, however, pegged the average at a much higher 9-9.5%.