Mumbai: Economic activity is likely to pick up in the second half of 2009-10 as recent indicators of investment activity show sequential improvement and on significant easing of financial conditions, Goldman Sachs said.
The economy continues to have significant pent-up demand for investment, especially in infrastructure and in affordable housing, it said in a note on Friday.
“We therefore see upside risks to our gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 5.8% for FY10,” Pranjul Bhandari and Tushar Poddar, Goldman’s economists in India said.
The economy grew 5.8% in the March quarter from a year earlier, above forecasts of 5.2% and matching the upwardly revised December quarter rate, which was the lowest since the December 2004 quarter.
The October-December growth rate was revised from 5.3%.
For the 2008-09 fiscal year to 31 March, India’s economy grew 6.7%, its weakest in six years and sharply slower than rates of 9 or higher in the previous three years.
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, GDP grew 8% quarter-on -quarter annualised, compared to a 0.8% quarter-on-quarter rise in the previous quarter.
“We continue to expect the rupee to strengthen vis-a-vis the US dollar and our 12-month target is at 46,” the note said.