BackBJP risks all in Haryana, Maharashtra
BJP has shaped election campaigns around Narendra Modi; a loss for Congress may shrink its footprint in a few pockets
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New Delhi/Mumbai: The stage is set for the biggest electoral battle since the conclusion of the 16th general election on 16 May, with Haryana and Maharashtra going to polls on Wednesday.
Like the general election, the elections to the two state assemblies pit the two principal national parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, against each other and promise to yet again rework the political contours in the country. By shaping the campaign around Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP has played a risky gambit, even as the Congress is desperately seeking to break a losing streak that began last December.
A win for the BJP will not only cement Modi’s grip over the party but also significantly alter the dynamics of state elections—and prove that a national figure can dominate local politics. If the Congress pulls off an upset, it will be in a position to script a comeback; a loss could deepen the growing structural fissures in the country’s oldest political party even as it shrinks the Congress footprint to a few pockets across the country, with absolutely no presence in the Hindi heartland.
Analysts say the electoral battle for Haryana and Maharashtra once again shows that in the new political paradigm the contest is between two national parties, leaving regional parties, which were a dominant political alternative in the 1990s, to fight for electoral relevance.
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The Modi factor
The BJP on its part has turned the assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana into a virtual referendum on Modi, who addressed 37 rallies in the two states—27 in Maharashtra and 10 in Haryana. It was a strategy that made a virtue out of a necessity; the party didn’t have a face in either state.
Modi should be enough, say some analysts.
A.K. Verma, a Kanpur-based political analyst, argues that voters are ready to trust the developmental politics of the BJP and the ability of Modi to deliver on the promises.
In Maharashtra, the BJP was at a loss after the abrupt demise of Gopinath Munde in a car accident in June. In Haryana, it decided to cash in on its good performance in the parliamentary election in a state where it has always been an outsider. And in both states, it decided to go alone.
“There is no doubt that Modi is the most popular leader of the party and his popularity with the masses helped BJP in Lok Sabha elections also," said a senior BJP leader who was involved in the election campaign in Maharashtra and asked not to be identified.
The BJP tried to complement Modi’s efforts with that of others.
Munde’s daughter Pankaja Munde sought to carry on her father’s legacy and addressed 35 meetings. Eknath Khadse, leader of opposition in the Maharashtra assembly, spoke at 34 rallies and Vinod Tawde, leader of opposition in Maharashtra’s legislative council held 68 public meetings. The BJP held 715 rallies in Maharashtra, of which the party’s recently appointed president Amit Shah only addressed 20.
“The maximum number of rallies in Maharashtra was held by Union minister Nitin Gadkari, who spoke at 104 rallies," added the BJP leader mentioned in the first instance.
Fielding Union ministers was part of the party’s plan, this person added, and claimed that the BJP had specific strategies for each of the 288 seats in the state.
In Haryana, the BJP imported workers from Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Modi was again the chief campaigner and addressed 10 public meetings, Shah spoke at 20.
Media buyers say the party spent ₹ 25 crore on advertising, including around ₹ 50 lakh on telecasting Modi’s Madison Square Garden speech on slots it bought on several Marathi channels.
And Modi’s central message of fighting corruption should resonate in the state, says a brand specialist.
“One of the key themes of Mr Modi’s philosophy Na khaaonga, na khaane doonga; na sounga, na sone doonga (“Will not get bribed, neither will I allow others to be bribed; will not rest, neither will I allow others to rest) becomes relevant to Maharashtra in the backdrop of corruption. While Maharashtra is actually ahead of Gujarat or other states on several parameters, the media has been flooded equally by news of corruption in (the state in) real estate, irrigation and infrastructure. That’s where Mr Modi’s theme connects to the state," said Kiran Khalap, co-founder, Chlorophyll Brand and Communications Consultancy.
New polity
The breakdown of the 25-year-old alliance between the Shiv Sena and the BJP, closely followed by the break-up of the political association of the NCP and the Congress, has opened up a political battle in Maharashtra, which seemed a cakewalk for the Saffron twins. The battle has become a five-cornered one (including Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra NavNirman Sena) with opinion polls calling it differently, although all agree that the BJP is the front runner. The Congress may just edge MNS and come in fourth, say analysts.
In Haryana, the BJP is looking to rewrite history. In a state where it has never managed more than 10% of the vote share in an assembly election, the party, led by Modi, is hoping to win on its own. Like in Maharashtra, good news for the BJP will mean bad news for the Congress.
“The assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana are very important for the Congress party because it is contesting alone in Maharashtra and the party will be required to test its strength on the ground in both the states where it is facing anti-incumbency. Congress party is also facing a leadership crisis," said A.K. Verma.
Vidhi Choudhary in New Delhi contributed to this story.
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