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Business News/ Industry / Foodgrain output likely to dip by 3%
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Foodgrain output likely to dip by 3%

The decline in the production is due to erratic rainfall during the 2014 monsoon

Overall, farm incomes have been hit hard in the ongoing crop year due to a delayed and deficit monsoon as well as a slump in commodity prices. Photo: MintPremium
Overall, farm incomes have been hit hard in the ongoing crop year due to a delayed and deficit monsoon as well as a slump in commodity prices. Photo: Mint

New Delhi: India’s foodgrain production in the current fiscal is estimated at 257 million tonnes (mt), the lowest in four years, and 8.5 mt lower than the record output last year, according to the second advance estimate for 2014-15 released by the agriculture ministry on Wednesday.

The 3% dip in production is due to lower production estimates for rice, coarse cereals and pulses. Rice output is estimated at 103 mt, lower by 3.61 mt than last year’s record production of 106.65 mt.

At 39.8 mt, the production of coarse cereals is expected to dip by 3.5 mt, compared with 2013-14. Similarly, the output of pulses is estimated at 18.43 mt, lower by 1.35 mt compared with last year.

With a dip of 2.9 mt over last year’s production level, oilseed output is estimated at 29.8 mt. However, the production of wheat is estimated at 95.76 mt—marginally lower than the record 95.85 mt production in 2013-14.

At 35.15 million bales—one bale equals 170kg—cotton production is expected to dip by nearly 4%, compared with last year’s production of 36.6 million bales (fourth advance estimate). Production of sugarcane is expected at 35.5 mt, marginally higher than last year’s output.

The decline in the production is due to erratic rainfall during the 2014 monsoon, the farm ministry said in a statement. While the South-West monsoon was deficient by 12% of the long period average and is expected to dent kharif production of foodgrain by as much as 7%, the North-East monsoon, on which the southern Indian states depend for rabi sowing, was deficient by 33%.

According to an earlier estimate from the Central Statistical Office (released on 9 February), the agriculture sector is likely to register a growth of 1.1% during 2014-15, compared with the previous year’s growth rate of 3.7%.

Overall, farm incomes have been hit hard in the ongoing crop year due to a delayed and deficit monsoon as well as a slump in commodity prices.

Despite the forecast slump in production, prices of key crops such as rice have increased only by 4.4% (December 2014, year-on-year). In comparison, the wholesale price of wheat and cotton have dipped by 2.5% and 16%, respectively.

Moreover, the hikes in the minimum support prices (at which the government procures grain) for paddy and wheat, at 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, has been the lowest in recent years.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sayantan Bera
Sayantan is a National Writer with the Long Story team at Mint, covering food and nutrition, agriculture, and rural economy. His reportage is based on granular ground reports, tying it with broader macroeconomic realities, with a sharp focus on people and livelihoods. Beyond rural issues, Sayantan has written deep dives on topics spanning healthcare, gender, education, and science.
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Published: 19 Feb 2015, 12:01 AM IST
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