BackTemperature rise may take toll on monsoon: World Bank
A 2-4 degrees Celsius rise could alter weather patterns, says report; ‘unusual events could become the normal’
Premium(AFP)
New Delhi: Arise in temperature of 2-4 degrees Celsius will have a disastrous impact on monsoon rain in South Asia, increasing the chances of drought and longer dry spells in India, according to a World Bank report.
The increase in temperature will also make precipitation patterns unpredictable, the report released on Wednesday said. It predicted a 10% increase in annual mean monsoon intensity and a 15% increase in year-to-year variability of Indian monsoon precipitation. It also predicted that the seasonal distribution of precipitation is expected to become amplified—a drop of up to 30% in rain in the dry season and a 30% increase in the wet season.
The new study builds on a World Bank report released last year that forecast a 4 degrees Celsius increase in world temperature above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century if countries didn’t take concerted action immediately.
Recent greenhouse gas emissions and future trends imply higher 21st century emission levels than previously projected, the study said. “As a consequence, the likelihood of 4°C warming being reached or exceeded this century has increased, in the absence of near-term actions and further commitments to reduce emissions," it said.
The report comes at a time when states such as Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are battling floods due to unprecedented rain that has led to death and devastation. The death toll in Uttarakhand has risen to 150 because of the floods. State officials have said that it will take at least a year to restore normalcy in the worst-hit areas.
Natural disasters like this will become more frequent in future because of climate change, said Muthukumar S. Mani, senior environmental economist at World Bank, without linking the situation in the two northern states to climate change.
“Unusual events could become normal," he said, adding that the report provides scientific basis for governments to respond to climate change.
Governments all over the world will need to think long term, said Onno Ruhl, country director, India, World Bank. “It does worry me that many governments go with short-term choices instead of medium and long term, because they don’t think that their choices can lead to a doomsday scenario," Ruhl said.
The report also predicted that a 4 degree Celsius warming by the 2080s will lead to increased drought over northwestern India, Pakistan and Afghanistan and lengthier dry spells in eastern India and Bangladesh.
“The change in temperature will increase the variability of (the) monsoon, so its predictability will become difficult," Mani said. This could lead to floods as well as droughts, he said.
The poor and the vulnerable are likely to be affected the most due to global warming, the report said. “There is a likelihood of social conflicts increasing because of this," Mani said, adding that countries such as India will have to think about making infrastructure more climate resilient.
Urban areas are likely to be affected the most, with many of them turning into vast heat islands, the report said. It predicted a manifold increase in the frequency of unusually hot and extreme summer months.
Kolkata and Mumbai will become highly vulnerable to the impact of increases in the sea level, tropical cyclones and riverine flooding, it said, adding that a 2 degree Celsius warming by the 2040s will result in a 12% drop in crop production in South Asia. Melting glaciers and loss of snow cover will also pose a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources, it said.
Ruhl said the biggest challenge for the country will be to grow in a sustainable manner. “Indian government will have to be smart about how it uses its resources," he said.
Unlock a world of Benefits! From insightful newsletters to real-time stock tracking, breaking news and a personalized newsfeed – it's all here, just a click away! Login Now!
