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Business News/ Politics / Policy/  Congress fears a solar eclipse in Kerala polls
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Congress fears a solar eclipse in Kerala polls

The fallout of graft charges in the solar scam and bar bribery case could prove to be the party's undoing

Photo: AFPPremium
Photo: AFP

Kochi/Alappuzha/Kottayam: O.J. Kuruvilla is a 77-year-old retired bus driver with the Kerala State Road Transport Corporation in Pala, a town in central Kerala. With no particular political leaning, Kuruvilla says he has been voting for the coalition led by the Congress party for the past few elections including, as he stresses, the 2014 general election when the “tide was against" the party. But this time around, his choice could change because of a single factor that he overlooked in 2014: corruption.

“There is corruption everywhere. The communists are corrupt, the United Democratic Front (UDF, led by Congress) is corrupt. But the last five years have been particularly difficult. You need money to get the smallest of work done, including getting pensions. The communists are not any better. But for the lack of an option and the fear that things may get worse if UDF gets another term, this time we will vote for the LDF,’’ Kuruvilla said, referring to the Left Democratic Front led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist).

That Kuruvilla belongs to Pala assembly constituency, a seat where in a record of sorts, former finance minister K.M. Mani has won every time since 1965, is an indicator of the anger among the people against the UDF in Kerala. Mani’s party—Kerala Congress (Mani)—is a constituent of the UDF.

As the Congress faces its toughest electoral times, losing state after state ever since the 2014 general election, a poor performance in Kerala could make things worse.

As a consequential choice, most such voters—at least across the four districts of Kochi, Alappuzha, Kottayam and Thrissur—say they are likely to vote for the LDF when the 140 assembly constituencies of the state go to the polls on Monday.

The state has never elected any political formation for two consecutive terms in the past four decades and is unlikely to throw a surprise on 19 May when the results are announced. While it could be bad news for the beleaguered Congress party, losing out on a state it has often showcased as a “development story", it is not a good news for the CPM either because it is garnering support less because of its own goodwill and more because the voters feel that they are not left with any choice.

Auto driver Felix says Congress has lost touch with the masses. Photo: Lenin/Mint
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Auto driver Felix says Congress has lost touch with the masses. Photo: Lenin/Mint

“Looking at the macro level situation, it seems like the LDF is going to win in Kerala. But there will be certain undercurrents in this election. The UDF has worked, but corruption has been a major spoiler. Plus, the kind of ‘development’ the Congress talks about, it does not strike a chord with the poorer sections of the society and they often relate to the LDF more," said J. Prabhash, professor of political science at the University of Kerala.

This is where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in an alliance with the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), is pitching to be a third alternative in some parts of the state, especially the coastal belt. Their focus is on the other backward classes (OBCs), particularly the Ezhava community. The alliance may play a spoiler in some of the constituencies as it threatens to disrupt the traditional bipolar contest, but its impact could be limited to that.

Congress and corruption

In a state where political personalities form the key narrative of any election and campaign posters witness a serious jostling for space by leaders, Oommen Chandy has been a popular chief minister, widely liked for his developmental work, mainly in infrastructure and access to services. But almost every mention of his growth story gets followed by a quick reminder of the recent charges of corruption against the state government.

“When he took over for his second term, Chandy looked promising and frankly, he did a fair amount of work, especially when it comes to laying roads, etc. But eventually, problems typical to the Congress party started—corruption and losing touch with the ground. People like us have fallen off their list of priorities; the ministers in our state are too busy being corrupt and earning a fortune for themselves,’’ said Felix K.J., a 32-year-old autorickshaw driver from Kottur in Alappuzha district.

One thing particularly hurting Chandy’s prospects is the allegation that an official of the chief minister’s office took bribes to allocate solar panels at cheaper rates and approve mega solar projects. The allegation was made by Saritha Nair, an accu-sed in the so-called solar scam.

In the run-up to the polls, the heat of corruption cases reached Chandy’s cabinet when finance minister Mani had to resign in November over allegations that he accepted bribes in return for giving licences to bars. Soon after, excise minister K. Babu had to resign in April over allegations in the bar bribery scam.

Oommen Chandy gets a voter’s blessings in Kottayam. Photo: PTI
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Oommen Chandy gets a voter’s blessings in Kottayam. Photo: PTI

“Corruption is an important issue. It is rampant everywhere in the society; it is in the opposition also. It is not correct to say that there is corruption in the UDF. Allegations may pop up any time, but that is not true. We have to examine whether an allegation is true or not. This time also, I think the UDF will be victorious,’’ Mani told Mint during a campaign tour in Kottayam.

“Chandy is good; he has done a lot of work for us, but the people around him, especially in his cabinet, are corrupt. I will vote for Congress, but I know that with the amount of scandals that has hit this government, eventually the LDF will win. Thankfully, Kerala usually elects the opposition party every election and so, no one gets a chance to flourish for a full decade in their corrupt practices,’, said Suleiman K.I., who owns a hotel at Peruva near Kottayam.

Rise of the Left

In a sunny hot evening, Udayamperoor readies for a rally by V.S. Achuthanandan, the 92-year-old veteran of the CPM and the face of the LDF in this election. A small ground swells up with supporters old and young, men, women and children, as red flags festoon the fences and pop up in the middle of a makeshift tent. There is nothing grandiose about the rally apart from VS himself.

CPM veteran V.S. Achuthanandan addresses a meeting in Udayamperoor. Photo: Lenin/Mint
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CPM veteran V.S. Achuthanandan addresses a meeting in Udayamperoor. Photo: Lenin/Mint

Unlike most political leaders who prefer to make an entry from the barricaded side near the stage, he enters the venue from the middle of the tent, mobbed and hailed amid victory slogans from attendees.

VS keeps his speeches short and focuses mainly on corruption allegations against the UDF and attacks the ruling BJP at the centre for being “intolerant", especially to the youth.

As is evident from the rally, the CPM’s strength in Kerala, similar to any other part of the country, comes from its ground presence and organized cadre.

While a section of CPM’s leadership would rather support the party’s politburo member Pinarayi Vijayan for the chief minister’s post, voters seem to have more clarity over their choice. “VS is Kerala’s superman. It is not the Left Front or the CPM that people are voting for; it is for him. Forget his old age, the amount of energy he has is unbelievable,’’ said Thomas Malyakal, a vegetable seller in Thrissur.

Leaders of the Left Front are acutely aware of the significance of this election, the first since Sitaram Yechury took over as the CPM general secretary. It is a make-or-break poll for the CPM, both in Kerala, where it has one of the best chances to return to power, and in West Bengal, for improving its tally in a state it once ruled for 35 years.

A CPM worker with party souvenirs at a rally. Photo: Lenin/Mint
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A CPM worker with party souvenirs at a rally. Photo: Lenin/Mint

The party is currently in power only in the north-eastern state of Tripura and a victory in Kerala would ensure its greater participation in national politics where its relevance, owing to its repeated drubbing in general elections, is currently diminished. In Kerala too, the party is gaining ground owing to the unpopularity of the Congress and the lack of any other option.

NDA: the third variable

“Since the beginning, the Ezhava community has been supporting the communists, but their leaders have become too big for the very people who support them. Those who are financially poor and lower class depended on the LDF. But now, both the Congress and the Left parties are not an option for us and so, we joined hands with the BJP. The people of Kerala have been looking for a third alternative," Subhash Vasu, national secretary of the BDJS, told Mint in Thekkekara, Kottur.

BJP chief Amit Shah at an NDA rally in Aluva. Photo: PTI
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BJP chief Amit Shah at an NDA rally in Aluva. Photo: PTI

BDJS is the political arm of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP)—an organization led by Vellapally Natesan and represents the politically influential Ezhava community in the state. Vasu, also an NDA candidate from Kuttanad assembly constituency, sums up how the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP is trying to find a toehold in the state—by reaching out to OBCs and looking to play a third vertex in a closely contested election where victory will be decided by thin margins.

“People in Kerala have been asking for a third alternative since a long time. The NDA is giving its best in this election but it is yet to emerge as a worthwhile alternative. I feel there will be at least 15-20 constituencies which will face a close three-cornered contest," Prabhash said.

The better the NDA performs, the more damage it will do to the Congress, according to Prabhash, who feels that it is the poorer sections of the Ezhava community that is more politically sensitized and loyal to its original choice of communists, whereas the maximum shift in votes is happening from the economically stronger section of the community that usually votes for the Congress party.

The NDA is particularly drawing support from young voters in the state, many of whom said they had voted for Modi during the 2014 general election.

For instance, Sethunadh S., a 22-year-old first-time voter from Pathanamthitta, is convinced he wants to vote for the BJP. “Generations now and before me have only seen the Left parties and Congress rule in the state. It is high time this cycle gets broken and the only other option we have now is the BJP-led NDA. They may not win eventually, but I will still vote for them to put across my point," he said.

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Published: 11 May 2016, 12:35 AM IST
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