Hanoi: The engines of Asia’s re-emergence — India, China and five other economies — will account for 45% of the global GDP by 2050, a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday predicted.
“Asia’s rise will be led by China, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand,” the ADB’s report, ‘Asia 2050 - Realising the Asian Century´, said.
In 2010, these seven economies had a combined total population of 3.1 billion, or 78% of Asia, and a GDP of $14.2 trillion.
“These seven economies alone will account for 45% of the global GDP,” the report said.
The report compares the potential outcomes for Asia under two competing scenarios — the ‘Asian Century’ and the ‘Middle Income Trap’.
In the more optimistic Asian Century scenario, the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) would soar to $148 trillion and account for 51% of global output in 2050.
On a purchasing power parity basis, GDP per capita in Asia would rise to $45,800, compared with the projected 2050 global average of $36,600, as per the report.
It said that by the middle of this century, an additional three billion Asians could enjoy higher living standards, but only “if Asia sustains its present growth momentum”.
The report released on the second day of ADB’s annual meeting further said that as the global economy’s centre of gravity shifts toward Asia, the region could account for about half of global output in 2050, up from the current 27%.
Asia is also likely to contribute half of global trade and investment.
The report, however, cautioned that major Asian economies should ensure they do not fall into the middle-income trap, which could inhibit the growth of emerging markets.
The alternative scenario assumes that Asia’s fast-growing economies “China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam will fall into the middle income trap” of slowing growth rates and stagnating income levels over the next 5 to 10 years, it said.
If these events occur, Asia would account for only 32%, or $61 trillion, of the global GDP in 2050, it said.