BackHas Donald Trump softened stance on Pakistan after hostages’ rescue?
Analysts don't think Donald Trump has softened his stance on Pakistan; they advocate 'a wait and watch approach' given US president's tendency to be unpredictable
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New Delhi: After berating Pakistan for supporting terrorist groups in Afghanistan in a major foreign policy speech in August, US President Donald Trump seems to have softened his rhetoric after Islamabad facilitated the release of a Canadian-American family from militant-infested Waziristan over the weekend.
“Starting to develop a much better relationship with Pakistan and its leaders. I want to thank them for their cooperation on many fronts," Trump said in a tweet on Saturday, triggering speculation on whether this meant a U-turn on his recently announced Afghan policy in which he had warned Pakistan to end support to terrorist organizations.
Analysts in India don’t seem to think so but they have advocated “a wait and watch approach" given Trump’s tendency to be unpredictable and his emphasis on transactional relationships.
Trump’s seeming change in stance followed American Caitlan Coleman, her Canadian husband Joshua Boyle and their three children being rescued from the Haqqani network’s captivity on Thursday. Kidnapped back in 2012, they were rescued by Pakistani forces acting on US intelligence.
In New Delhi, analysts saw the rescue as a bid by Pakistan to gain favour with the US after Trump’s harsh words during his Afghan policy speech in August. It comes ahead of US secretary of state Rex Tillerson’s visit to South Asia next week.
“We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond," Trump had said, adding: “Pakistan has also sheltered the same organizations that try every single day to kill our people. We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting. But that will have to change. And that will change immediately."
The speech had also outlined a clear role for India in stabilizing Afghanistan where the rebel Taliban forces have made a remarkable comeback —apparently with Pakistan help—since their ouster from Kabul in 2001.
On Trump’s remarks thanking Pakistan for cooperation, analysts advocated a cautious approach. “I don’t see it as a U-turn. The US put pressure on Pakistan and got results, that is how they have always worked," said Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London. “The US under President Trump believes in transactional relationships and this is an example of that," he said.
Former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh was of the view that Trump’s tweet was an example of the “split level of policy making" in the US at present. “What the US President says in tweets are not taken as considered policy," Mansingh said, adding that one has to look for actions like the one by the US Congress withholding monetary aid to Pakistan on account of its support to terrorism. There were other moves under consideration like the revocation of Pakistan’s status as major non-NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) ally, he said. “We need to see if these indicators change," he added.
The fact that Pakistan helped rescue the hostages will be presented as a victory for Trump, who is under severe pressure at home, said former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal.
Significantly, Trump’s softer tone toward Pakistan comes days after US defence secretary James Mattis told a House Armed Services Committee hearing that the US needs “to try one more time to make this strategy work with them, by, with and through the Pakistanis." “...If our best efforts fail, the president is prepared to take whatever steps are necessary," he told the committee earlier this month.
Pakistan’s rescue of the American-Canadian hostages and Trump’s tweet come against the backdrop of a surprise announcement by the Afghanistan foreign ministry last week of the revival of the Pakistan-led Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) to bring the rebel Taliban onto the talks table. The announcement said that the next meeting of the group comprising officials from the US, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan would be held in Oman’s capital Muscat on 16 October.
“Pakistan is sensing a certain degree of isolation on the question of terrorism. So it is making certain gestures," said Mansingh. “I would wait to see how the US reacts in terms of actions on the ground vis-a-vis Pakistan and its intentions on fighting terrorism," he said.
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