In the March Global Political Risk Index or GPRI, the outlook for India is negative, while that for Pakistan is neutral. In terms of positions, India still remains far above Pakistan. In March, India slipped a spot to 13 in terms of its GPRI score, while Pakistan continued to bring up the bottom of the 24-country ranking. The reason for India’s fall, as well as the negative outlook for the country, is the worry that the conflict between the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and its key ally, the Left Front, could escalate. The UPA is keen to take the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal forward, while the Left Front wants it killed.
Analysts at the Eurasia Group, the risk management firm that created the index, tabulated the scores before a crucial month-end meeting of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), one of the constituents of the Left Front. At this meeting, the party reiterated its strong opposition to the nuclear deal.
The index is a composite measure of the state of a country’s government, society, security, and economy. While the score indicates stability or instability for the month gone by (March in this case), the outlook (positive, negative or neutral) indicates which way the scores will likely move. Significantly, the outlook for Pakistan was positive last month.
Mint has partnered with the Eurasia Group for GPRI and runs this every month. Mint carried the previous GPRI on 5 March