BackAAP unlikely to pose a challenge nationally
Despite its potential, AAP's footprint will be initially restricted to urban pockets as it faces several hurdles
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Since 8 December, a lot has been said about the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its potential to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi or to resurrect a third political alternative in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election. A self-proclaimed moral crusader even went on to conclude in a television discussion that Arvind Kejriwal presents a real threat to Modi.
While no one can deny that AAP has made an unprecedented debut in Delhi politics and has appealed to the imagination of the common man across the country it will be too early to conclude that it represents a real national alternative.
Before going into the details, it is important to note that AAP could attract only 29.5% of the votes cast in the Delhi assembly election—effectively 70% voted against it. Further, its success was not uniform across the state—the party completely failed in the less urbanized pockets of outer Delhi. Vote aggregation at the Lok Sabha-level indicates that it could marginally lead in just two of Delhi’s seven seats, with the BJP leading in the rest. Though commendable, it is not the precedent-setting performance that is being predicted by a section of the media and intellectuals; in the past the Asom G
It is apparent that anti-corruption is the present flavour of political discourse—and AAP conducted a three-year-long sustained non-political anti-corruption campaign. Consequently, voters in Delhi related to AAP, especially given its clean slate and cover of activism. At the same time, the BJP failed to appeal due to organizational squabbling, delayed declaration of its chief ministerial candidate, corruption in the BJP-led Municipal Corporation of Delhi and a campaign strategy that lacked mass outreach. Not surprisingly, AAP performed well.
However, in the national elections, AAP cannot be the sole beneficiary of anti-corruption sentiments against the Congress party, because of the BJP’s stronger claim as the national alternative to the Congress. Moreover, three months from now, when the general election is due to be held, AAP may not have a “clean slate" any longer. Their record of governance can either be an advantage or a disadvantage.
In the last two decades, Indian politics has assumed a federal form where regional leaders and parties have played a dominant role; national parties too largely bank on their strong regional leaders for political legitimacy. Even in national elections, the performance of state governments and regional issues play an important role. It will not be easy for AAP to acquire these characteristics in just three months.
During the two United Progressive Alliance (UPA) regimes, the dilution of political authority has been the major factor behind Modi’s emergence as a national leader. While Kejriwal could successfully counter discredited Sheila Dixit and a soft BJP leader like Harsh Vardhan, nationally Modi, Rahul Gandhi and several regional leaders will present a formidable challenge. Moreover, Kejriwal still comes across as an activist who is more adept at “guerrilla warfare" rather than a leader who can guide a country.
The AAP campaign in Delhi revolved around local issues at the constituency level and it worked in its favour. The political activism of Kejriwal has so far been limited to anti-corruption, but now he will have to address other national issues. So far he has been reluctant to speak out on any issue, as was apparent from his silence over the controversial Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code, which criminalizes consensual sex between adult men. He will also have to take a position on secularism, which has defined the national position of various regional parties recently. AAP’s standing nationally will largely be determined by how Kejriwal responds to critical national issues. Identity politics has been the most potent instrument at recent elections. However, Delhi is one of the few states where this does not play a significant role beyond religious minorities and Dalits; this helped AAP contest the assembly election purely on governance issues. Kejriwal, however, did attempt to play the minority card when he met controversial Muslim cleric Maulana Tauqeer Rana. But he came under severe fire for his pro-Muslim overtures because the basic philosophy of AAP does not gel with identity politics—indeed, it can bracket AAP with traditional parties. When AAP moves to the real politik of the heartland, its political philosophy will be tested. We will have to see whether this new political paradigm succeeds in overthrowing socially entrenched political behaviour in rural India.
The AAP leadership has taken a huge gamble by accepting support of the Congress to form the minority government in Delhi. If we go by his speech at the confidence motion, Kejriwal appeared relatively soft on the Congress. AAP runs the risk of being bracketed with the discredited Congress due to coalition compulsion. BJP will surely attempt to raise corruption charges against former Congress ministers and put Kejriwal under pressure to deliver on his claims of honesty. This will be a tricky situation, the battle between coalition compulsions and delivering probity in governance.
In the last few weeks, the media has reported a mad rush of top corporate executives to join AAP. Some of them would genuinely have a penchant for serving the people through the AAP platform. At the same time, some could be seeking to piggy back on the AAP in order to realize their own political ambitions. The challenge for AAP would be to filter out such people; moreover, too many bigwigs becoming the face of the party will also dilute the ‘Aam Aadmi’ (common man) profile of the party. There is talk of large-scale mobilization of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to expand the base of the AAP. Though there are many NGOs doing good service to the people, many others are mired in charges of corruption and misappropriation of public funds.
Therefore, handling the growth of AAP itself will be a challenge for its leadership.
Delhi is a small state where the AAP was blessed with a large cadre of self-motivated volunteers who easily outnumbered the BJP and the Congress cadres. But in rural India, AAP will not get such easy access to volunteers as it will have to deal with strong, traditional cadre-based parties. Therefore, the lack of robust organizational support will be another handicap in its expansion plans at the national level.
The above are some of the challenges that AAP will have to overcome if it aspires to play a national role. Over time, it can overcome all these hurdles, but it is unlikely to do so ahead of the 2014 general election. Therefore, despite its promise and potential, AAP’s footprint will be initially restricted to urban pockets.
Devendra Kumar is a psephologist and director of Research and Development Initiative.
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