Paris / London: Rising oil supplies will help offset higher demand over the next five years, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday in its latest medium-term oil and gas market report.
“For the next few years, the oil market is marked by more comfortable spare capacity than envisaged last year and the duration of the current gas glut is set to last beyond 2013, at least in some regions. Yet, we shouldn’t be complacent,” the Paris-based IEA said.
Potential delays to new deepwater oil projects following the accident at BP’s oil rig and the oil spill in the US Gulf of Mexico may tighten supplies, said the agency, the advisor to 28 industrialised countries.
“Should the impact of those measures be widespread delays to deepwater projects, anything between 100,000 bpd and 800,000 bpd of new 2015 oil supply currently included in our outlook might be deferred,” the IEA said.
The agency raised its oil demand growth outlook to an average 1.4%, or 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), for every year to 2015 on the back of robust demand from emerging markets, taking the total volume to 91.9 million bpd in 2015.
The previous forecast in its medium term outlook in June last year was an average growth by an average 540,000 bpd per yea in 2008-2014.
The outlook is based on the assumption of IEA’s average oil import price, which would reach around $85 a barrel in the latter years of the 2009-2015 period, the agency said.
Global oil supply will rise by 300,000 bpd a year to 96.5 million bpd by 2015, mainly led by production outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Non-OPEC oil supply will increase to 52.5 million bpd by 2015 from 51.5 million bpd last year, the IEA said.
Despite the upward revision for the medium term global outlook, the IEA figures showed a weak economy could curtail demand from the developed countries more quickly than it predicted in its previous outlook last year. The near term global demand increase is also likely to be be limited.
Oil prices eased after the release of the report. US crude was 43 cents down at $77.42 a barrel at 0927 GMT.
“It basically shows 2011 will not be very different from 2010,” Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix said.
“Based on these numbers, there will not be a global stock draw.”