Inflation, as measured by a rise in wholesale prices, for the week ended 31 March could fall to 5.81% according to a poll of economists conducted by Reuters. The Indian government is to announce wholesale inflation for the week in question on 13 April. There is usually a two week lag in the release of these numbers.
The annual wholesale inflation rate, as measured by comparing data for a current week with that for the same period a year ago, had risen to 6.73% for the week ended 3 February, the highest in more than two years.
Since then, India’s central bank has initiated a raft of measures aimed at tightening money supply, and the government has reduced import duty on a range of products to reduce prices. Some of those measures are having an impact on inflation. Wholesale inflation was 6.39% for the week ended 23 March.
In late March, in an unexpected move, the Reserve Bank of India raised a key short-term lending rate and increased the balance banks need to maintain with it.