South-west monsoon: Rain deficit just 5%, but distribution uneven
New Delhi: The south-west monsoon, which the forecasts said would be normal this year, has fallen short by just 5% so far but has been uneven in terms of distribution across geographical regions of the country, India Meteorological Department (IMD) data showed.
In June, IMD forecast a “normal” June-September monsoon. It predicted that rainfall will likely be 98% of the 50-year average (long-period average or LPA) for the entire country, more than the 96% that it estimated in April.
IMD predicted that monsoon rainfall will be fairly distributed across the country, but that does not seem to be the case.
As per the latest IMD data, rainfall during 1 June-27 September has been 5% less than normal. Among states, 24 had normal rainfall, six were deficient, five had excess and one had “large excess” rainfall.
The states that are deficient are Nagaland, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi and Punjab.
The south-west monsoon has started withdrawing, albeit with a delay of 10-12 days. As per IMD, the monsoon had withdrawn from some parts of Punjab and Haryana, most parts of West Rajasthan, some parts of Kutch and north Arabian Sea as of Wednesday.
“The monsoon withdrawal line continues to pass through Amritsar, Hisar, Jodhpur, Naliya. Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of south-west monsoon from some parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, remaining parts of Punjab, West Rajasthan, some more parts of Haryana, some parts of east Rajasthan, some more parts of Gujarat and north Arabian Sea during the next 48 hours,” IMD added.
The monsoon continues to be active over Telangana, Rayalaseema, coastal Karnataka, south interior Karnataka and Kerala.
IMD forecast rain over most parts of east and northeast India and at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, south peninsula and eastern parts of central India.