Vienna: Opec has revised downwards its medium and long-term forecasts for global oil demand in the wake of the current economic crisis, it said in a new report on Wednesday.
In its World Oil Outlook 2009, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that under its revised main forecast oil demand would be “less than 106 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, down from 113 million bpd.”
OPEC is forecasting global oil demand of 90.2 million bpd in 2015 and 105.6 million bpd in 2030, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) is pencilling in 94.4 million bpd and 106.4 million bpd respectively.
The oil cartel said that recession-hit developed nations, the OECD (Organisation for Economic Coooperation and Development) countries, are unlikely to return to their full economic growth potential until 2015.
Thus, oil demand in those countries was likely to continue to contract until 2010 and then stagnate until 2013, OPEC said.
By contrast, oil demand in developing countries is set to expand over the long-term, with a projected increase of 23 million bpd between 2008 and 2030.
“Almost 80% of the net growth in oil demand from 2008-2030 is in developing Asia,” the report said.
Nevertheless, on a per capita basis, oil use per person in North America “will still be more than 10 times that of South Asia,” OPEC noted.
The transportation sector would remain the main source of future oil demand growth, accounting for over 60% of the total increase to 2030, the report continued.
That was lower, however, than in its previous assessment owing to the current global economic slowdown “as well as the assumed greater efficiency improvements.”
OPEC said that car ownership per capita in developing countries was set to rise from just 31 cars per 1,000 people in 2007 to 87 per 1,000 by 2030.
“This remains well below OECD levels, however, which average 530 per 1,000 by 2030,” it said.
Opec member countries were currently investing heavily to expand upstream capacity. But even if the low level of oil prices meant that some of the projects had to be delayed or even postponed beyond 2013, “spare Opec crude oil capacity is nevertheless set to remain at comfortable levels,” the report said.