May was bad for India and June will likely be worse if the Global Political Risk Index, or GPRI, is any indication. India continued to remain at No. 13 in the index in terms of May scores, and its outlook stayed negative. Last week’s increase in fuel prices won’t help the June score.
Pakistan brings up the bottom of the 24-country ranking, and its outlook has turned negative from neutral as political tension remains high over the reinstatement of judges fired by President Musharaff, according to analysts at Eurasia Group, the risk management firm behind the index.
On the political front, the ruling Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government here was defeated in the assembly polls in the state of Karnataka which now has a Bharatiya Janata Party government. On the economic front, inflation continues to rise, the rupee is losing much of the ground it gained through 2007, and the recent increase in oil prices could have an impact on growth.
The index is a composite measure of a country’s government, society, security and economy. While the score indicates stability or instability for the month gone by (May, in this case), the outlook (positive, negative or neutral) indicates which way the scores will likely move.
Mint has partnered with Eurasia Group for GPRI and runs this every month. Mint carried the previous GPRI on 2 May.
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