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Business News/ Politics / Policy/  BJP gets wake-up call in bypolls
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BJP gets wake-up call in bypolls

Samajwadi Party, Congress seek to capitalize on BJP's poor showing in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan

This is second setback for the BJP in bypolls to Assembly constituencies after the Bihar results. Photo: HTPremium
This is second setback for the BJP in bypolls to Assembly constituencies after the Bihar results. Photo: HT

New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies won 13 of the 33 assembly constituencies across nine states where bypolls took place, but given that it and its allies held 24 of these, the performance in these polls is seen by analysts as a wake-up call at worst or a minor, but irritating blip at best for a party that didn’t put a foot wrong during parliamentary elections earlier this year.

Some analysts also see it as confirmation of just how much the party needs Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has, as he should be, they say, been focusing on the serious business of running the country.

The BJP won three of the 11 assembly seats that went to polls in Uttar Pradesh, one of four in Rajasthan, six of nine in Gujarat, one of three in Assam, and one of two in West Bengal. Its ally Telugu Desam Party won the lone seat in Andhra Pradesh.

One constituency each in Tripura, Telangana, and Sikkim also saw bypolls.

The setback in the assembly bypolls comes four months after the party’s emphatic win in the Lok Sabha elections but continues the trend of its performance in bypolls to assembly constituencies.

In July the Congress, decimated in parliamentary elections, won all three assembly constituencies in bypolls in Uttrakhand. In August, an alliance of Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) edged out the BJP in elections to 10 assembly constituencies in Bihar, winning six (the BJP won the rest).

One psephologist said the BJP’s performance in all bypolls underlined the weak local leadership of the party. “A particular weakness of the BJP is that the party does well only when the senior leadership is in the background or is seen in the thick of the campaigning," said Jai Mrug, a Mumbai-based political analyst.

Indeed, some members of the BJP also point to the lack of unity among leaders in Uttar Pradesh that may have led to the defeat.

The extent of the party’s reverses in Uttar Pradesh can be gauged from the fact that BJP’s ally, Apna Dal, lost the Rohaniya assembly seat, which is one of the assembly segments in Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency represented by Prime Minister Modi. BJP also lost the Charkhari assembly seat vacated by Uma Bharati, union minister for water resources, river development and Ganga Rejuvenation.

“BJP had decided to promote Yogi Adityanath as the face of (the party in the Uttar Pradesh) elections and the result shows that hardline politics may not bring the desired results for party in Uttar Pradesh. The experiment of projecting Yogi Adityanath has failed and BJP will have to rework its strategy," said a senior BJP leader based in Uttar Pradesh, who asked not to be identified.

Under Adityanath, BJP launched a hardline campaign in the state, focusing, among other issues, on the allegedly widespread conspiracy of Muslim men impersonating Hindus to marry and subsequently convert Hindu girls.

Some analysts said the message was very different from the one of development Modi made the centrepoint of his parliamentary campaign. BJP leaders also claimed “the Bihar formula" of parties opposed to BJP succeeded in Uttar Pradesh also as Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress helped Samajwadi Party.

Meanwhile, BJP state president Laxmi Kant Bajpai accepted defeat and said, “It (the bypoll result) has given us a lesson for the Vidhan Sabha polls."

The Samajwadi Party (SP), which has faced criticism over the poor law and order situation in Uttar Pradesh, won eight out of the 11 assembly seats in India’s most politically crucial state. “I am grateful to people. The verdict is a lesson to the forces which wanted to divide communities in the state. People have not favoured politics of division," said Akhilesh Yadav, chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, after the win.

BJP leaders say party president Amit Shah will personally review the causes of the reverses in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Both Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which together send 120 lawmakers to Lok Sabha, are critical to the electoral calculations of the BJP which aims to strengthen its foothold in these Hindi-speaking states. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won a total of 104 parliamentary seats from the two states in the general elections.

For the Congress party, the bypoll results could serve as a new lease of life. “I am thankful to the people for their support. This is a phenomenal success for Congress party in Rajasthan. It is a huge effort by the Congress party workers and I must give credit to each and everyone, especially young people," said Sachin Pilot, president of the Congress party in Rajasthan, largely credited for Tuesday’s win.

The Congress party did well in Rajasthan especially because it effectively opposed policies such as new labour and land reforms, said Rajeev Gupta, a former professor at the department of sociology, Rajasthan University. “If Congress party, by means of organizing itself well or consolidating organizational strength, comes out strongly against the BJP, then it can hope to do much better in the upcoming state polls," Gupta said.

To be sure, the Congress, with 21 seats in the Rajasthan assembly, compared to the BJP’s 163, is still an insignificant minority.

The BJP won an assembly seat on its own strength for the first time in West Bengal when its candidate Shamik Bhattacharya came from behind to win at the Basirhat (South) constituency in the state’s North 24 Parganas district.

The results, analysts said, could change the BJP’s strategy for coming assembly elections in the important states of Maharashtra and Haryana. The BJP was widely expected to win on its own in the latter and in partnership with the Shiv Sena in the former. The BJP and the Shiv Sena have been sparring over seat allocation and the bypoll results could probably weaken the former’s position in this exchange.

Romita Datta of Mint and PTI contributed to the story.

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Published: 16 Sep 2014, 09:58 AM IST
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