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Business News/ News / World/  Sri Lanka’s Mahinda Rajapaksa eyes a political comeback
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Sri Lanka’s Mahinda Rajapaksa eyes a political comeback

On Monday, Rajapaksa could yet have his moment if his party, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, pulls off an unlikely win

Since his ouster as president, Rajapaksa has been actively plotting his comeback by positioning himself as a prime ministerial hopeful. Photo: ReutersPremium
Since his ouster as president, Rajapaksa has been actively plotting his comeback by positioning himself as a prime ministerial hopeful. Photo: Reuters

New Delhi: It’s a little more than seven months since former Sri Lanka president Mahinda Rajapaksa lost power following a surprise defeat to Maithripala Sirisena, leaving his political future in the balance. But on Monday, as Sri Lanka goes to the polls to elect a new parliament, Rajapaksa could yet have his moment if his party—the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)—pulls off what many see as an unlikely win. The newly-formed United National Front for Good Governance (UNFGG) led by the United National Party (UNP) is widely expected to emerge as the single-largest bloc in the parliament. The UNP is led by Sri Lanka’s prime minister Ranil Wickramasinghe.

Factional politics within SLFP

Since his ouster as president, Rajapaksa has been actively plotting his comeback by positioning himself as a prime ministerial hopeful. Following his defeat in January, a factional split within the SLFP has given Rajapaksa much needed breathing space. Rajapaksa handed over the chairmanship of the party to Sirisena in January; Sirisena was in March appointed leader of the SLFP-led United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA). However, many leaders within the party and the alliance, who were still loyal to the former president, wanted him to lead the SLFP/UPFA campaign in the general elections. There were others, who are loyal to Sirisena and helped his campaign in January, who wanted to keep Rajapaksa out at all cost.

The former president’s faction ultimately prevailed over Sirisena, who as chairman of the SLFP ceded the party’s general election campaign to Rajapaksa. The party was equally conscious about Rajapaksa’s rousing popularity among the Sinhala Buddhist majority, especially rural voters in that group, and decided to nominate him and his family members for Monday’s elections. The move to nominate Rajapaksa also led to many Sirisena supporters in the SLFP joining hands with the UNFGG.

Jehan Perera, executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, says, “There was a majority opinion within the SLFP to let Rajapaksa contest and lead the party in the elections. Sirisena yielded to that pressure, but he’s also employed judo tactics by using the strength of the opponent to defeat the opponent, in this case, undermine Rajapaksa."

Ceding the party’s campaign to Rajapaksa could well be a political masterstroke by Sirisena, given the prevailing political scenarios in the country. Should Rajapaksa fail to achieve his goal of leading his party to a majority, it presents Sirisena the opportunity to seize control and clean the party of allegedly corrupt Rajapaksa loyalists. Perera believes that a defeat could well diminish Rajapaksa’s influence within the SLFP.

In a public speech last month, Sirisena said that he had no confidence in Rajapaksa, and would not nominate him as prime minister, should the SLFP win a majority. On Thursday, as the campaign headed towards its business end, Sirisena wrote a powerful five-page letter to Rajapaksa, effectively blocking his bid to become prime minister, should the party win an unlikely majority next week. The President, according to Article (43) (3) of Sri Lanka’s constitution, is empowered to “appoint as Prime Minister the Member of Parliament who in his opinions is most likely to command the confidence of the Parliament."

Reform opportunity

For Wickramasinghe, considered the favourite to be re-appointed prime minister, the elections provide a golden opportunity to settle unfinished business from January, when he was first appointed the head of a “national government" by Sirisena.

Since its election, the Sirisena government embarked on an ambitious 100-day reform programme, which was focused around the country’s gradual transition to democracy and economic progress. “The new government moved quickly to offer economic relief to the many burdened by high living costs. The populist budget in February lowered prices on government regulated products and gave raises and other relief to many government employees," the International Crisis Group said in a recent report.

However, the report adds, “The political deadlock and uncertainty that followed the nineteenth amendment brought more economic worries; the stock market fell, and investor confidence and foreign direct investment remained weaker than expected. The suspension of many development projects also appears to have negatively affected economic growth."

Wickramasinghe, many believe, is the right man to lead and reinvigorate the Sri Lankan economy, especially with his pro-West, liberal outlook. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, director of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, says, “The allegations of the Rajapaksa regime of corruption and nepotism has struck a cord with the Sri Lankan people and they believe that the UNP are the better managers of the economy."

Dilrukshi Handunnetti, a senior journalist working with Sri Lanka’s Sunday Observer, says, “Ranil is perceived as someone who is not corrupt. He is seen as someone who could provide the economy a much-needed thrust. He is seen as a man with brains, someone who is a process person as compared with his predecessor, who was extremely popular. Personally, Sirisena sees eye-to-eye with Ranil, and that goes in his favour. President Sirisena is a single-term president, he’s not really one for the popularity charts. He is only interested in seeing things change, and Ranil, holds the key in this regard, especially as someone who will drive home the reform agenda."

Minorities prefer UNFGG

The minorities, the Tamils and the Muslims who form nearly 25% of Sri Lanka’s population, have embraced the Sirisena government and its policies. An opinion poll conducted by the Centre for Policy Alternatives earlier this month revealed that Wickramasinghe was overwhemingly favoured by Muslims, Tamils anduUp-Country Tamils, while Rajapaksa was the preferred choice among the Sinhala Buddhists.

Perera says, “There is a belief that this government is non-racist or non-communal in its outlook and that minority rights would be safeguarded. This as opposed to Rajapaksa, who believes in the primacy of the Sinhalese." Handunnetti adds, “There is a focus on reconciliation. It wouldn’t have been possible under Rajapaksa and he would have faced agitation from within his party."

Likewise, the Sirisena government, Perera says, has also managed to capture the imagination of the youth, the urban intelligentsia, which could play an important role in ensuring the UNFGG’s victory in Monday’s elections. A grand alliance of parties opposed to Rajapaksa, the UNFGG, was formed in July, with Wickramasinghe’s UNP leading the coalition. It also includes the Buddhist monks’ party, the Jathika Hela Urumaya, minority parties like the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) and the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA). The alliance is also believed to have the tacit approval of Sirisena in his bid to further undermine Rajapaksa. The elections will also see prominent parties like the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the Marxist-Nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Democratic Party led by General Sarath Fonseka, contest the elections separately.

UPFA defeat likely

If reports from Sri Lanka are to be believed, the Rajapaksa-led UPFA is heading for an electoral defeat, which effectively will foil the former president’s ambitions of becoming prime minister. Saravanamuttu says, “The evidence suggests that the UNP will emerge as the single largest party, with Rajapaksa having to settle for the leader of the opposition, as it stands. In January, Sirisena ran with the promise of a national government, and if the UNP falls short of a majority, there is every chance that members of the UFPA will switch sides and form that unity/national government."

The best placed scenario for Rajapaksa would be a hung parliament, in which case, some of the Sinhala nationalist parties could come together and back his bid. However, that scenario is unlikely. Even if the UNP falls short of a majority, UPFA members of parliament loyal to Sirisena could cross over and help form a “national government" with comfortable majority.

Interestingly, Rajapaksa is contesting from Kurunegala in Sri Lanka’s North-Western Province, as opposed to his traditional bastion in the South. Nationally, Kurunegala is the third-highest electoral district, and importantly for Rajapaksa, it boasts of a majority Sinhala Buddhist population. The district is also home to most number of armed forces’ families, besides being close to Polonnaruwa, Sirisena’s constituency since 1989.

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Published: 14 Aug 2015, 07:36 PM IST
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