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Business News/ Politics / Policy/  Punjab elections: Congress has its nose ahead, but AAP catching up
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Punjab elections: Congress has its nose ahead, but AAP catching up

Experience, organizational strength favours Amarinder Singh, and the Congress is seen as a formidable contender, but the AAP is gaining ground among youth

Outside the Congress party office (left) and the AAP office at Lambi, the very constituency from where Captain Amarinder Singh is pitted against five-time CM Parkash Singh Badal. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/MintPremium
Outside the Congress party office (left) and the AAP office at Lambi, the very constituency from where Captain Amarinder Singh is pitted against five-time CM Parkash Singh Badal. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/Mint

Jalandhar/Bhatinda/Patiala: All the leaders come over in the run-up to election but no one cares to look back after that. There is no water here, basic education is very expensive and there are no jobs available. In such a situation, we can only hope for a change this time," said Vir Pal Kaur, a resident of Lambi in southern Punjab.

Kaur, 23, has a diploma in nursing, but is yet to land a job for herself. Her husband, too, is unemployed.

Kaur’s is a story that is common across Punjab, which goes to polls on 4 February. It’s the story of aspirational voters who appear to have lost faith in the political class.

Lambi is a VIP assembly constituency in Muktsar district—the battleground for two of the state’s oldest politicians, 89-year-old chief minister Parkash Singh Badal from Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and 74-year-old former chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh from Congress.

Both are fighting for political survival, but the upcoming assembly election is not just a narrative of a two-term anti-incumbency facing the SAD-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance. It is also the story of growing apathy among voters, which could potentially turn hostile, to conventional politics and sloganeering—exactly the kind of vacuum the third player, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), is looking to exploit.

Three cornered contest

Regardless of the outcome, the entry of AAP has forced a structural change in the state’s politics: from a traditional two-party contest, it has evolved into a three-way fight. The last time this happened, in Delhi, AAP swept the polls, capturing 67 out of 70 seats.

Punjab is divided into three major regions—Malwa, the largest, occupies the central and southern parts of the state and accounts for 69 of Punjab’s 117 assembly constituencies. Doaba, the eastern flank, accounts for 23 seats and Majha on the West is home to 25 seats.

Because of its sheer size, the Malwa region dominates politics in Punjab. While Majha is a Sikh stronghold, Doaba accounts for a majority of the Dalit population in the state.

Across the three regions, in several assembly constituencies in important districts like Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Bhatinda, Patiala and Sangrur, voters feel that the SAD-BJP combine faces a serious anti-incumbency, with the polls angled as a close contest between the Congress and the AAP.

Voters feel that while experience and organizational strength favours Amarinder Singh and the Congress is seen as a formidable choice by farmers and traders, Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is gaining ground among youth and those frustrated with conventional politics.

“The Congress campaign is focused on manufactured advertisements. AAP is using the same political strategy as it did in Delhi, portraying some politicians as villains. AAP may be the better option because Congress and Akalis have both failed the people of Punjab—which is why people are looking for a new party," said Kamlesh Goel, 25, who is pursuing a PhD degree in economics from Panjabi University.

ALSO READ | Punjab polls: Narendra Modi projects Parkash Singh Badal as a farmers’ leader

The Akalis also need to worry about growing alienation among farmers, an important constituency in this overwhelmingly agrarian state. More than 80% of Punjab’s land is under cultivation, double the national average.

“This government has not done anything for farmers. During Captain’s time (Amarinder Singh’s tenure as chief minister from 2002 to 2007) we got fair prices and he stood up for the rights of the farmers. Development takes place on the basis of the party you support—AAP is not a choice for us, we feel Congress is a better choice because it understands the state and its people," said Sukhdev Singh, a 70-year-old farmer from Mann village.

Sensing a disquiet, the Congress has gone into overdrive to woo farmers, its manifesto promising loan waivers and free power for farmers.

Punjab voters are unimpressed by AAP’s 2015 performance in Delhi—if anything, several fear that if elected the state government may be remote-controlled by the AAP government in Delhi.

AAP has been relying on the anti-corruption image of Kejriwal and showcasing some of their work in the national capital. Kejriwal has ruled himself out of the race to be chief minister but has said that the deputy chief minister will be a Dalit—holding out the promise of power to a segment that makes up around a third of Punjab’s population.

Bikar Singh, an 80-year-old trader and farmer from Rurka village in Gill constituency declares himself as a “die hard Akali" but says that Congress could win this election. “People are turning against the Badals (the chief minister and his family) so Congress is gaining from that. AAP is an outsider party. They are from Delhi and don’t understand the issues in Punjab," he said.

Anti-incumbency factor

“The Akali government is not coming back. The fight is between the Congress and the AAP. Demonetisation will have a negative effect on the BJP-SAD alliance. People were affected by it, especially in villages where there are fewer banks," said 28-year-old Ishu Gumber who works for his family business in Ludhiana.

“The key issues this election are that corruption should be tackled and there is a serious need for business growth. We feel under Captain’s government, policies for business and trading were better," Gumber added.

As per the 66th round of the National Sample Survey, 42 out of every 1,000 people in Punjab are unemployed, compared with 25 at the all-India level. In 2011, the number of job-seekers on the registers of employment exchanges was 362,000, of which 253,000 were educated.

Serious charges of corruption in public office have been levelled against the BJP-SAD state government.

“People are sick of the BJP-SAD government. In cities people are very angry with the property tax that has been imposed. In villages people are sick of the law and order situation and the drug menace. There is no employment in any part of the state. People in Punjab want change," said S.S. Sharma, a lawyer in Patiala who also owns a pharmacy.

The view on the doorstep, then, is that the Akali Dal-BJP coalition will find it hard to overcome its two-term anti-incumbency. The big question is whether Captain will have his last hurrah or the upstart AAP will manage to pull off a second upset win.

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Published: 31 Jan 2017, 11:19 PM IST
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