Whatever the outcome of the general election, stock markets in India would move on to the more pressing macroeconomic issues. Abhijit Bhatlekar/Mint
Whatever the outcome of the general election, stock markets in India would move on to the more pressing macroeconomic issues. Abhijit Bhatlekar/Mint

Why markets should show restraint on exit poll results

  • Even if the exit polls are right, the fact is Indian markets are richly valued and are pricing in positive outcomes
  • India’s economic growth has lost steam in FY19 and analysts are challenging claims that it would bounce back smartly in FY20

If NDA comes to power, as predicted by the exit polls, it would be a pointer to Narendra Modi’s growth in popularity. (PTI )
If NDA comes to power, as predicted by the exit polls, it would be a pointer to Narendra Modi’s growth in popularity. (PTI )

Exit polls predict a landslide win for NDA

  • If these results hold up, the NDA combine will become the first non-Cong govt to return to power with a majority
  • The message for the Congress and opposition parties is they haven’t been able to dent the NDA support base

A file photo of noted political scientist Yogendra Yadav (Pradeep Gaur/Mint)
TCS chief operating officer N. Ganapathy Subramaniam.  (Photo: Pradeep Gaur/Mint)
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Exit Poll Predictions

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 | Exit Polls Coverage

CHANNEL / AGENCY BJP+ CONG+ OTHERS
Republic TV-C Voter 287 128 127
Times Now-VMR 306 132 104
India TV- CNX 300 120 122
News 24- Chanakya 350 95 97
News Nation 282-290 118-126 130-138
Republic - Jan Ki Baat 305 124 113
ABP AC-Nielsen 277 130 135
CNN-News18 IPSOS 336 82 124
India Today- Axis 339-365 77-108 79-111
* LS has 543 seats, target is 272. Voting in Vellore is postponed.
Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong

Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll Predictions

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 | Exit Polls (UP)

CHANNEL / AGENCY BJP+ CONG+ OTHERS
Times Now-VMR 43 2 25
Republic TV- C Voter 38 2 40
Republic - Jan Ki Baat 46-57 2-4 21-32
ABP-AC Nielsen 22 2 56
* LS has 543 seats, target is 272. Voting in Vellore is postponed.
Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong

West Bengal Exit Poll Predictions

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 | Exit Polls (WB)

CHANNEL / AGENCY BJP CONG TMC OTHERS
Times Now-VMR 11 2 28 1
India Today-Axis 19-23 0-1 19-22 0
ABP-AC Nielsen 16 2 24 0
* LS has 543 seats, target is 272. Voting in Vellore is postponed.
Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong

Karnataka Exit Poll Predictions

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 | Exit Polls (Karnataka)

CHANNEL / AGENCY BJP+ CONG+ OTHERS
News 24- Chanakya 23 5 0
Times Now-VMR 21 7 0
ABP AC-Nielsen 15 13 0
Republic- C Voter 18 9 1
Republic- Jan Ki Baat 18-20 7-10 0-1
CNN-News18 IPSOS 21-23 5-7 0
India TV-CNX 17 11 0
* LS has 543 seats, target is 272. Voting in Vellore is postponed.
Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 | Exit Polls (MP)

CHANNEL / AGENCY BJP+ CONG+ OTHERS
Times Now-VMR 24 5 0
Republic TV- C Voter 24 5 0
Republic - Jan Ki Baat 21-24 5-8 0
ABP-AC Nielsen 24 5 0
News24- Chanakya 27 2 0
CNN- News18- IPSOS 24-27 2-4 0
* LS has 543 seats, target is 272. Voting in Vellore is postponed.
Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 | Exit Polls (Rajasthan)

CHANNEL / AGENCY BJP+ CONG+ OTHERS
Times Now-VMR 21 4 0
ABP-AC Nielsen 19 6 0
News24- Chanakya 25 0 0
Republic- C Voter 22 3 0
Republic- Jan Ki Baat 19-23 3-6 0
India TV 21 4 0
* LS has 543 seats, target is 272. Voting in Vellore is postponed.
Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong
Congress had no plan except to dislodge Narendra Modi, which worked to the BJP’s advantage, said BJP leaders.bloomberg
Congress had no plan except to dislodge Narendra Modi, which worked to the BJP’s advantage, said BJP leaders.bloomberg

In exit polls, BJP’s politics of performance is the winner

  • This will be the first time a non-Congress party is retaining power, if projections hold true
  • To be sure, most pollsters in 2014 underestimated the scale of the win notched up by the BJP, then the party in the opposition

Congress President Rahul Gandhi addresses an election campaign for Lok Sabha polls (PTI )
Congress President Rahul Gandhi addresses an election campaign for Lok Sabha polls (PTI )

Poor show by Congress could signal challenges for Rahul Gandhi

  • The results will be particularly significant for the Congress as the 2019 poll is the first general election the party is contesting under the leadership of Gandhi
  • In 2014, the Congress faced a historic loss, winning only 44 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats with a vote share of only 19.3%

Coatue founder Philippe Laffont.reuters
S. Ramann, MD and CEO, NeSL. (Photo: Abhijit Bhatlekar/Mint)
S. Ramann, MD and CEO, NeSL. (Photo: Abhijit Bhatlekar/Mint)

NeSL offers IPs its platform to store data

  • NeSL will become a platform where data from banks and insolvency professionals can be integrated, says Ramann
  • The new project, which will be announced in the next couple of weeks, will help IPs get easier access to data on a company’s debtors

Firm plans to offer entry-level and mid-segment motorcycles over the next four months. (Photo: Mint)
Firm plans to offer entry-level and mid-segment motorcycles over the next four months. (Photo: Mint)

Bajaj Auto to roll out new models this year

  • India’s second-largest motorcycle maker by sales volume hopes that the new products would help to augment its portfolio
  • The company says that it sold more than 742,000 units of its 100cc CT model in FY19

Voters line up to cast their votes at a polling station in Bengaluru (PTI file)
Karnataka chief minister H.D.Kumaraswamy. Photo: Hemant Mishra/Mint
A supporter of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) waves the party flag during an election campaign rally being addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  (Reuters)
A file photo of an ONGC Tripura Power Co. plant
 (Photo: Reuters)
 (Mint)
The Election Commission Sunday announced that the tentative turnout for the seventh phase of polling stood at 61.21% as of 7PM, which could go up as more data emerged (HT file)
The Election Commission Sunday announced that the tentative turnout for the seventh phase of polling stood at 61.21% as of 7PM, which could go up as more data emerged (HT file)

Exit Polls 2019: BJP set to return to power, NDA tally seen at 242-336

  • The bitterly-fought seven-phase general elections, stretching over 39 days, ended on May 19
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seen as favourite to return to power, riding on a pro-incumbency wave

 (Photo: Bloomberg)
Most exit poll projections signal a setback to regional leaders including NCP’s Sharad Pawar, TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu and TMC’s Mamata Banerjee. Pradeep Gaur/Mint
Most exit poll projections signal a setback to regional leaders including NCP’s Sharad Pawar, TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu and TMC’s Mamata Banerjee. Pradeep Gaur/Mint

Regional leaders could see their hopes shrink

  • If the election results on 23 May follow along the lines of the exit poll projections, the high table of the so-called federal front may not have many big names
  • Pawar, the prime minister aspirant, began efforts to bring together all anti-BJP parties in 2018

Exit polls show a decline in the fortunes of Mamata Banerjee-led TMC. (PTI )
Karnataka is the only southern state where BJP is expected to buck the trend, say various exit polls (Photo: PTI))
Voters in queues to cast their votes at a polling station in Patna, Sunday. (PTI)
Voters in queues to cast their votes at a polling station in Patna, Sunday. (PTI)

Opinion | Poll campaign lacked probity and decorum

On issues such as defence, we now get a whole lot of noise and no substantial debate

Naveen Patnaik is likely to win in Odisha Assembly elections 2019, shows exit polls
Naveen Patnaik is likely to win in Odisha Assembly elections 2019, shows exit polls

Exit polls highlights: BJP making inroads in Odisha, YSRCP to pip TDP in Andhra

  • Jagan Reddy likely to win 18 Lok Sabha seats Andhra, shows India Today Exit polls
  • Naveen Patnaik retaining power in Odisha, BJP getting majority in Lok Sabha, say exit polls

Bengalis are taking the poll narrative of the ruling TMC and BJP over the destruction of Vidyasagar’s statue with a pinch of salt.
The sudden bankruptcy of IL&FS raised funding costs for NBFCs. (Photo: Aniruddha Chowdhury/Mint)
The sudden bankruptcy of IL&FS raised funding costs for NBFCs. (Photo: Aniruddha Chowdhury/Mint)

Opinion | The mystery of India’s vanishing working capital

Problem with loan against property has more to do with the lenders than the borrowers

 (Ashesh Shah/Mint)
 ((Jayachandran/Mint))
 (Photo: Mint)
Congress had no plan except to dislodge Narendra Modi, which worked to the BJP’s advantage, said BJP leaders (Bloomberg)
 (Photo: Abhijit Bhatlekar/Mint)
The company’s revenue fell 1% in the March quarter, thanks to a slowdown in demand.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi (ANI file)
Congress president Rahul Gandhi (ANI file)
 (Photo: Bloomberg)
The staple impetus for the BJP is the ability of its government to deliver on welfare schemes such as Ujjwala. (PIB)
The staple impetus for the BJP is the ability of its government to deliver on welfare schemes such as Ujjwala. (PIB)

Opinion | 2014 and 2019 polls: Anti-incumbency vs pro-incumbency

Faith has started figuring in this year’s electoral lexicon while referring to the NDA’s record

Most of the exit polls are predicting the continuity of Narendra Modi-led NDA government (Reuters)
Irdai chairman Subhash Chandra Khuntia.
The 2014 win offered the PM a chance to carry out major reforms but his shift to centre-left style populism squandered it (Mint)

Exit Polls highlights: It's advantage BJP in Karnataka, DMK in Tamil Nadu

  • Andhra Pradesh might give overwhelming majority to YSRCP and TRS will romp home in Telangana, says India Today-Axis Survey
  • Congress-led UDF is poised to win big in Kerala, say three surveys

 (Reuters )

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 | Exit Polls (Bihar)

CHANNEL / AGENCY BJP+ CONG+ OTHERS
Times Now-VMR 30 10 0
News24- Chanakya 32 8 0
Republic- C Voter 33 7 0
Republic- Jan Ki Baat 28-31 8-11 1
ABP-AC Nielsen 34 6 0
* LS has 543 seats, target is 272. Voting in Vellore is postponed.
Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong
 ( Photo: iStockphoto)