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Business News/ Companies / Home stretch for bank earnings
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Home stretch for bank earnings

With banks in the last phase of announcing quarterly earnings, a clearer picture of the stressed asset scenario will emerge soon

In the October-December period, the RBI had conducted an asset quality review for the entire banking system, collecting granular account-wise data to determine the level of stress in the banking system. Photo: Pradeep Gaur/MintPremium
In the October-December period, the RBI had conducted an asset quality review for the entire banking system, collecting granular account-wise data to determine the level of stress in the banking system. Photo: Pradeep Gaur/Mint

A better picture of the health of India’s banking system will emerge in the next four days when 20 state-run banks—where many fear the bulk of stressed assets are centred—release their earnings for the October-December quarter, a period when stressed assets soared.

During the period, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) conducted an asset quality review (AQR), collecting account-wise data from all banks to assess stress levels. Following the AQR, the banking regulator asked banks to make additional provisions for certain large assets where asset classification was not uniform even though there were clear signs of stress. Banks were asked to spread the additional provisions over the third and fourth quarters. While additional provisions will directly impact the profitability of these banks, they will also affect further credit growth as banks will try and consolidate their loan books.

For the 17 banks (both public and private sector banks) which have announced their earnings, aggregate gross non-performing assets (NPAs) are at 62,396.5 crore, up 21% from 51,483 crore reported in the September quarter. On a year-on-year basis, gross NPAs rose 40%. Provisions for bad loans stood at 7,190 crore in the third quarter, up 62%, quarter-on-quarter and almost 90% higher than the year-ago quarter.

Net profit for these 17 banks stood at 11,300 crore for the October-December period, up only 2.7% quarter-on-quarter and an increase of 9% from last year.

Among those that have reported their results, ICICI Bank Ltd has seen the largest quarter-on-quarter jump in gross bad loans among large lenders.

ICICI Bank reported gross NPAs worth 21,149 crore for the quarter ended 31 December, up nearly 62% from a year ago. As compared with the September quarter, the growth was 33.4%. Provisions for the quarter stood at 2,844 crore, up from 942 crore in the July-September period. While addressing the press in a conference call after announcing the bank’s result, Chanda Kochhar, managing director and chief executive officer (CEO) of ICICI Bank, stated that bad loans are likely to increase significantly in the January-March period as well.

The surge in bad loans has pushed down the stock price of ICICI Bank, which has fallen 10.5% since 28 January when the earnings were announced. The drop in share prices has pushed down ICICI Bank to the third spot in terms of market capitalization among top private sector banks, with HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank taking the top two places.

In case of Axis Bank, gross NPAs stood at 5,724 crore in the third quarter, up 47% year-on-year and a 28.6% jump from the September-ended quarter. Provisions at Axis Bank Ltd rose marginally on a quarter-on-quarter basis but jumped 41% year-on-year.

Among other banks that have reported their results so far, State Bank of Mysore Ltd has reported a 34% increase in gross bad loans between the September and the December quarters, while Syndicate Bank Ltd and Lakshmi Vilas Bank Ltd have reported a 24% increase each in gross NPAs.

Analysts expect public sector lenders to report muted results over the next week, with NPAs and provisions set to rise.

According to a Bloomberg estimate, Punjab National Bank Ltd is expected to report a net profit of 704 crore on Tuesday, lower than 744.56 crore a year ago. India’s largest lender State Bank of India is estimated to report a third quarter net profit of 3,300 crore on Thursday, up 13.4% from 2,910 crore a year ago.

On Friday, when Canara Bank Ltd announces its December quarter result, it is expected to report a net profit of nearly 512 crore, as compared with 656 crore reported in the December 2014 quarter. The Bloomberg estimates say that Bank of Baroda might report a net profit of 545 crore for the October-December quarter on Saturday, higher than 334 crore a year ago.

At a system level, total stressed assets, which include restructured assets, are estimated at 11.3% as of September 2015, according to RBI. The central bank has given banks a deadline of March 2017 to clean up their books, which requires them to recognize stressed assets and provide against them.

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Published: 09 Feb 2016, 09:13 AM IST
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