Photo: Courtney Keating
Photo: Courtney Keating

Predictions 2019: GDP, inflation, Sensex, bond yields and gold

What experts have to say about GDP, inflation, Sensex, bond yields and gold price outlook in 2019.

A. Balasubramanian, CEO, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC

GDP may surpass 7.5% supported by pick up in capital goods sector. Combined fiscal pressures may keep 10-year bond yields in 7.25-7.5% range. Sensex may see a pick up post general elections led by optimism and interest of global investors. Expect marginal uptick in gold prices. A spike in tax collection supported by neutral or low interest rates and inflation regime is expected to lead to relative outperformance from the Indian economy compared to other economies in the world.

GDP growth (FY19) : 7.50%

CPI inflation (2019): 3.50-4.25%

10-year government security yield: 7.25-7.50%

Sensex: 33,000-39,000

Gold price ($ per ounce): 1,300

B. Gopkumar, Executive director and CEO, Reliance Securities

GDP growth may slow down in the second half of FY19 on account of higher base. Decline in crude oil prices will mean lower WPI; we expect manufacturers to pass on the benefits which will bring down core inflation. But lower inflation means lower nominal growth rate and slower credit growth which could be a problem. For equity markets, the first half of 2019 is likely to be challenging but the second half could see a secular rally.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.30%

CPI inflation (2019): 3.70%

10-year government security yield: Around 7.60%

Sensex: 42,000 by Dec 2019

Gold price: (₹ per 10 gm) 33,000

Lovaii Navlakhi, MD and CEO, International Money Matters

Primarily, we expect a slowdown in US markets leading the fall in developed markets. During uncertain times, movement to safe havens of US dollar as well as gold will come first, followed by a shift to developing markets, including India. Within India, inflation will remain under control, resulting in lowering of interest rates. In the first year of the new government, measures to kickstart the economy will be in focus, resulting in higher equity markets.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.25%

CPI inflation (2019): 3.75%

10-year government security yield: 6.75%

Sensex: 39,800

Gold price (₹ per 10 gm): 34,000

Madan Sabnavis, Chief economist, Care ratings

The year for the economy will be uncertain until the elections as the government will pay less attention to the economy and more to social and economic schemes for farmers and lower income groups. RBI may cut rates with oil remaining benign and inflation being in the 4-4.5% range. Corporate bond market should be better and balance of payments should be under control with current account deficit under control and FPIs coming back to India at a better pace than in 2018.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.40%

CPI inflation (2019): 4.00%

10-year government security yield: 7.20-7.40%

Sensex: 38,500-39,000

Gold price ($ per ounce): 1,250-1,300

Papia Sengupta, Executive director, Bank of Baroda

India’s growth decelerated in Q1 FY2019 due to high interest rates, depreciating currency and high oil prices. Since then, oil prices have fallen by 37%, rupee has appreciated and interest costs are down with bond yields declining. However, liquidity issues with NBFCs will impact growth. Overall, growth is likely to be at 7.6% in the first half of FY 2019 and around 7% in the second. Equity markets will outperform if oil remains at current levels.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.00-7.60%

CPI inflation (2019): 3.60%

10-year government security yield: 7.00-7.50%

Sensex: No comment

Gold price: Will continue to appreciate

Sandeep Shrikhande, CEO, Kotak Mahindra Pension Fund

GDP growth is likely to moderate from the highs of 8.10% in the June quarter largely on account of fading base effect and slowdown in select sectors like NBFC. CPI inflation is also likely to moderate due to lower crude prices and subsiding food inflation. There will be benign interest rate sentiments and growth expectations. During H1 2019, equity markets may remain volatile. Investors could expect 10-12% annual returns in CY19 in equity markets and 8-9% in debt asset class.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.10%

CPI inflation (2019): 3.90%

10-year government security yield: 7.10 -7.15%

Sensex: 41,000 (in calendar 2019)

Gold price: (₹ per 10 gm) 33,000

Shanti Ekambaram, President, consumer banking, Kotak Mahindra Bank

Macroeconomic indicators are likely to be better due to sharp drop in oil prices. That combined with benign inflation is likely to see stable interest rates and currency, with stronger growth trends and flow of foreign investment. The challenges or uncertainties in 2019 will be around elections and private sector investment. Urban and rural consumption is likely to be stable.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.20%

CPI inflation (2019): 3.90-4.10%

10-year government security yield: 7.00-7.75%

Sensex: About 10% higher than December 2018

Gold price ($ per ounce): 1,275

Shishir Baijal, Chairman and managing director, Knight Frank India

Factors that will impact our economy and, more specifically, the real estate sector, especially in the first half of 2019, will be global economic crisis led by Brexit, US trade war with China and the likely hike in US Fed rates, general elections in India, liquidity pressure in real estate, and the pending decision on revision of GST on under-construction property sales.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.30-7.50%

CPI inflation (2019): Likely to be stable around 4%

10-year government security yield: Likely to be in the same range as of now

Sensex: No comments

Gold price: No comments

Umang Papneja, Senior managing partner, IIFL Investment Managers

Certain sectors could see an earnings turnaround, leading to higher earnings growth than the last 2-3 years. Large-cap valuations are still rich, hence EPS growth may not translate into equity price returns. This will restrict upside on the index. The US Fed has signalled a potential end to rate hikes; RBI too may signal rate cuts in CY 2019. 10-year G-sec yield could reach 7% levels but AAA corporate bond yields may get compressed.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.00%

CPI inflation (2019): 4.50%

10-year government security yield: 7.00%

Sensex: 39,000

Gold price (₹ per 10 gm): 33,000

Vighnesh Shahane, Managing director and CEO, IDBI Federal Life Insurance

India’s GDP growth will decelerate due to domestic and global uncertainties. High input costs and real interest rate will impact corporate profitability. But favourable base effect for corporate lenders, slowing down of NPA recognition cycle and government spend on infrastructure may support corporate profit growth. Stock market volatility may continue as current valuations are expensive.

GDP growth (FY19): 7.30-7.40%

CPI inflation (2019): 4.30-4.50%

10-year government security yield: 7.00-7.15%

Sensex: 39,000-39,500

Gold price (₹ per 10 gm): 32,500-33,000

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