BackSeemandhra: TDP, YSR Congress brace for a tight contest
Outcome of the high stakes election could well decide the political future of N. Chandrababu Naidu and Jagan Mohan Reddy
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Visakhapatnam: As one traverses coastal Andhra, a clear class divide is apparent. While large sections of the masses seem to be rooting for YSR Congress Party, a section of farmers and the middle class are favouring the return of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) to power in bifurcated Andhra Pradesh.
The 13 districts of Seemandhra, a term coined for coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, will simultaneously elect representatives for 25 Lok Sabha and 175 assembly constituencies on 7 May, concluding a vitriolic election campaign in the aftermath of the state’s division.
The outcome of the high stakes election could well decide the political future of the party chiefs of YSR Congress and TDP—Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy and N. Chandrababu Naidu.
Jagan Reddy is entangled in a string of corruption cases being probed by different investigating agencies. For Naidu, this could well be his last general election as he tries to keep at bay a brewing internal rebellion from the kin of TDP founder N.T. Rama Rao.
While the underprivileged sections are drawn to the pro-welfare agenda of Jagan Reddy, the middle class is looking up to Naidu to resurrect the economy of Seemandhra that is coping with the loss of the united state’s economic powerhouse Hyderabad to Telangana.
“Class divide is clear in Andhra at this moment. Earlier, the political divide was there in all the classes, but this time it is different," said political analyst C. Narasimha Rao.
Surveys, depending on who conducts it, largely predict a sweep in the direction of either TDP or YSR Congress, but analysts say the result could be somewhere in between as undecided voters could ultimately seal the fate of the candidates.
“The situation is very fluid. It is touch and go," said A. Prasanna Kumar, director of Visakhapatnam-based Centre for Policy Studies. But, “YSR Congress has a decisive edge".
YSR Congress’s popularity stems from the populist schemes of former chief minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, Jagan Reddy’s father, popularly called YSR, who stormed to power for the second consecutive time in 2009 before he died in a helicopter crash in September that year.
YSR’s magic is working four-and-a-half years after his death, especially among the rural population and the urban poor—a key segment Jagan Reddy is banking on to win this election.
“People are infatuated with YSR," said Ravika Naidu, a farmer from Suravaram village in backward Srikakulam district. “They want to give YSR Congress a chance."
“The rural masses are with the YSR Congress. The margin may come down but the advantage remains with YSR Congress," said political commentator K. Nageshwar.
Not to be outdone, Naidu, too, has introduced a range of populist schemes such as loan waiver for farmers, an unemployment allowance for youth, covering more ailments under the government-sponsored health scheme for poor, and providing a job for every household, among others.
These promises seem to be bearing some fruit. “The loan waiver is important," said Shiva Shankar, who cultivates five acres in Anaparthi constituency in East Godavari district. “I have read in the papers that the loan waiver is possible if there is a cooperative central government in Delhi," he said.
The TDP has tied up with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), whose prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has promised all possible aid to bifurcated Andhra Pradesh if Naidu is elected chief minister.
East Godavari is one of the more prosperous districts of the state, thanks to its fertile lands and access to irrigation facilities. Rising input costs and erratic rainfall have affected the margins of farmers of late, driving some of them to debt in this district. The farmers in other parts of the state could be more desperate for loan waivers.
In view of a large base of young first-time voters, Naidu has enlisted the support of Telugu film actor Pawan Kalyan, who commands a loyal following among youth. Kalyan, the youngest brother of Congress politician K. Chiranjeevi, has declared ideological support to the BJP-TDP alliance after floating his political outfit, Jana Sena Party, in March because he did not want to “split votes". He has been targeting Jagan Reddy and raising the political heat in Seemandhra ahead of elections.
At a public meeting in Kakinada town on Friday, a crowd broke through three layers of security to catch a close glimpse of the actor. Police watched helplessly as the audience, largely young, broke down the steel barricades leading to a minor stampede that was immediately brought under control.
Whether that adulation will transform into votes is still unclear. “He is our favourite hero, we will do whatever he says," said K. Durga Prasad, an undergraduate student in Kakinada. “We also have to think about our future. We think Modi and Naidu will deliver good governance," Prasad said.
That is not the case with M. Sattiraju, an electrician. “He is an actor. I have come to see him, but I will vote for whoever can help us. Will he come solve our problems tomorrow? He won’t even be in the vicinity," Sattiraju said.
“People are clever enough not to trust film stars," Kumar said. “YSR Congress has an edge because rural people, dalits and minorities (Muslims and Christians) refuse to vote for Naidu because he joined hands with Modi."
YSR congress has actively built its voter base over the last three years, making inroads into even remote hamlets populated by tribes. In several districts, hardcore Congress supporters switched loyalties overnight to YSR Congress—prompting the TDP to call it pilla Congress (baby Congress).
“We have no choice. After the Congress divided the state, the next best option was to switch over to YSR Congress," said M. Pydiraju, a former Congress worker in Jerjapeta village in Vizianagaram district.
The Congress’s decision to divide the Telugu-speaking state has pushed it to a corner, resulting in a two-way contest between YSR Congress and the TDP.
Still, the candidates of the reformist Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Lok Satta Party are actively canvassing for votes in remote constituencies.
The fledgling Jai Samaikhyandra Party, which espouses a united Andhra Pradesh, has been a non-starter. The party’s founder and former chief minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy is not even contesting this election although it has nominated candidates from different constituencies. Few people took notice of Kiran Reddy during his campaign in Kakinada town on Friday.
Betraying their desperation to come to power, parties of all hues are wooing voters with inducements ranging from cash and electrical appliances to liquor and gold or silver accessories. United Andhra Pradesh accounted for over 50% ( ₹ 140 crore) of the ₹ 272 crore seized in the country since 5 March, when the Election Commission announced the poll schedule. Officials have seized liquor bottles totalling 500,000 litres in the state, according to chief electoral officer Bhanwar Lal.
“The money that is flowing is much more than the liquor that flowed earlier. YSR Congress is very strong there," said Kumar. To escape vigilance, parties are resorting to ingenious tactics to distribute the enticements. Voters are usually given a slip of paper containing details of what they are entitled to, and the outlets where they can pick up their goodies from. Liquor and money are being distributed at the unlikeliest of places from graveyards to cars parked in the middle of farmlands.
“This has become like a modern-day event management. This is being professionally done," said Nageshwar.
As a result, this election has seen parties field some of the wealthiest candidates. About 86% of YSR Congress candidates are multi-millionaires; with TDP, it’s 82%. The value of the average assets of YSR Congress candidates is ₹ 10.97 crore while for TDP candidates it is ₹ 21.86 crore. Overall, 59 candidates had assets over ₹ 20 crore, according to an analysis by the Association for Democratic Reforms and Andhra Pradesh Election Watch.
Despite parties’ claims of a sweep in their favour, observers expect a significant section of people to make up their minds in the final two-three days leading to the election. These undecided voters can swing the electoral outcome either way.
“During elections, collective wisdom will prevail," Narasimha Rao said. “People will form an opinion after talking to various sources. When collective wisdom prevails, nobody can vote according to earlier opinion."
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