Mint Insight: Analysing the impact of an election year on stock market
We are hurtling headlong into a politically heavy election calendar in India in the coming months, which will bring with it lots of mind-numbing volatility. Does it pay to stay on the sidelines?
We are hurtling headlong into a politically heavy election calendar in India in the coming months, which will bring with it lots of mind-numbing volatility. Does it pay to stay on the sidelines? According to Chakri Lokpriya, Managing Director, TCG Asset Management, which manages close to $3 billion, there is no direct correlation between the political dispensation and stock market movements. Lokpriya goes on to quote history—going back to 2004, when the BJP was voted out, and the market was in despair, falling 6.95% in the succeeding three months. Thereafter, India’s stock markets delivered 16.4% CAGR in the following four years. Fast forward to the eve of the BJP’s historic win in 2014, the market was up 31.4% in anticipation of good times, and then drifted back in 2015 and 2016 delivering —4.1% and 3.0%, as policies were not implemented and non-performing loans of banks were not resolved. Corporate India functions despite its political maelstroms.
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