Looming trade war overshadows emerging-market tumult this week

Mexico City/Singapore/London: From China to Peru, emerging-market investors face a week of tumult as a trade war looms and faint sprouts of peace emerge on the Korean peninsula. Russia is in focus as traders gauge the impact of US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose levies on steel and aluminium. To spice things up, Peru’s politicians may try again to impeach the president, months after their first attempt sent the sol plunging to a record low.

In China, the second week of the National People’s Congress may bring the announcement of a new head for the central bank, who will take on the task of keeping the economy growing while defusing debt risks and steering monetary policy. PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who is due to retire soon, said last week that market access reforms should be accelerated, and that China “can be bolder in opening up.”

India, Russia

China also reports monthly retail sales, industrial production and fixed assets. India on Monday unveils inflation data that will dictate the trajectory of interest rates. The yield on 10-year Indian government bonds fell last week after three weeks of gains. Russia releases January trade data amid concern the country could be among the most affected by the Trump tariffs. Shares of Russian metals companies tumbled in Moscow last week.

Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski testifies before a congressional committee investigating the so-called Carwash bribery scandal on Friday, after which lawmakers may reopen an impeachment debate. The last time Kuczynski’s ouster looked likely, Peruvian bonds and the currency swooned. Bloomberg