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Business News/ Market / Stock-market-news/  Indian Army’s border raid injects caution into stellar quarter for Indian markets
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Indian Army’s border raid injects caution into stellar quarter for Indian markets

Stocks and the rupee had the steepest drop in three months on Thursday after the India Army attacked terrorist camps operating inside PoK

The Sensex is up 3.1% for the quarter, coming within two percent of its lifetime high set in January 2015. Photo: MintPremium
The Sensex is up 3.1% for the quarter, coming within two percent of its lifetime high set in January 2015. Photo: Mint

Mumbai: India’s attack on terrorist camps in Pakistan introduces a sobering note for financial markets closing out a blockbuster quarter.

Stocks and the rupee had the steepest drop in three months on Thursday while government bond yields surged the most since August 2015 after the biggest military escalation since a standoff in 1999. The downturn reflects an element of surprise for investors who have seen an unrelenting rally this year among assets as government policies spur optimism over economic and corporate earnings growth.

“The rally in markets would be on hold," said Rajeev De Mello, who oversees about $10 billion as head of Asian fixed income at Schroder Investment Management Ltd in Singapore. “An increase in geopolitical tensions always increases the risk premium investors demand. I would expect global investors to evaluate the potential for further escalation."

The conflict sent volatility soaring, shattering the calm that has been a defining feature of global markets in the past month. The India VIX Index surged 33% to 18.45, the most since August last year and higher than the one-month mean of 14. The rupee’s one-month implied volatility climbed the most since June 24. Pakistan’s KSE100 Index erased a gain of as much as 1.3%.

India said it attacked terrorist camps just across the border in Pakistan as Prime Minister Narendra Modi retaliated for a deadly strike against the nation’s soldiers earlier this month. Pakistan’s army rebuffed India’s announcement, calling the claim of surgical strikes an “illusion." The nations have fought three wars since they split from each other in 1947.

Escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours could sour sentiment for foreign investors who have pumped the most money into Indian stocks and bonds this quarter since March 2015.

“Market participants will naturally be watching the comments from the politicians on both sides," said Edwin Gutierrez, the London-based head of emerging-market sovereign debt at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, which oversees $403 billion of assets. “I’m sure the hotline phone is engaged right now."

The Sensex is up 3.1% for the quarter, coming within two percent of its lifetime high set in January 2015. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds has plunged 59 basis points, the most since the quarter ended December 2014, and reached a seven-year low Wednesday. The rupee is headed for a third monthly gain, the longest stretch since 2011.

Equity valuations have been pushed up by foreigners buying stocks for seven straight months, the longest streak since 2014. Inflows in September are the highest among Asian markets after South Korea.

Sanjiv Shah, chief investment officer at wealth manager and adviser Sun GlobalInvestments Ltd, said the attacks may give these investors pause.

“International investors may panic and traders may push prices a little bit but it all depends on how things play out," Shah said by phone from London, adding that he’s not changing his investment strategy.

Still bullish

Some fund managers see the equity losses as an opportunity.

“It’s a good time to use the declines to buy stocks linked to the economy as strikes by India don’t alter the economic outlook," Sunil Subramaniam, chief executive officer at Sundaram Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $3.7 billion, said by phone from Mumbai. The attacks don’t “represent diplomatic, economic change in the government’s stance," he said.

Global investors bought 34.1 billion of shares and their domestic counterparts were net buyers of 16.3 billion of equities on Thursday, provisional data from the nation’s exchanges show.

The $4.1 billion iShares MSCI India ETF, the biggest U.S. exchange-traded fund focused on the nation’s assets, fell 3.1 percent to a one-month low of $29.08 at 9:41 am in New York.

India’s world-beating economic growth has been a magnet for investors seeking higher-yielding assets. Asia’s third-biggest economy expanded 7.1% in the quarter ended June 30 from a year earlier, the fastest among major economies. At 6.86%, India’s 10-year sovereign yield is the highest among major Asian markets after Indonesia.

“This will have a very short-term impact on the market unless the situation completely escalates out of control," said Hans Goetti, the Dubai-based chief strategist for the Middle East and Asia for Banque Internationale à Luxembourg, which manages $40 billion. “We’re quite bullish on India. Inflation is quite low and there’s room to cut interest rates."

India’s central bank is set to review policy rates next week, and expectations are that the new governor Urjit Patel may reduce rates from a five-year low.

Goetti said he’s not unduly alarmed by the geopolitical situation.

Kargil war

“India and Pakistan have always been at loggerheads," he said. “If there’s a war tomorrow, then all bets are off."

The last major conflict between the two countries occurred when Pakistani troops invaded Kargil, in the northern Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir in late May 1999, only to withdraw in mid-July. India launched air strikes on May 27 that year to flush out the rebels, causing the Sensex to tumble 2.8% on the day.

Even so, the equity gauge rallied for three months through August as the government took steps to boost investments and spurred tax collections to help overcome the additional costs borne due to the conflict. The measure’s 64% jump in 1999 was its biggest since 1991.

“If there is a full blown war, it may be problematic in the near term, but a small strike should not be a big worry for the markets," Sampath Reddy, chief investment officer at Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Co., which has about $6.5 billion in assets, said by phone. Bloomberg

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Published: 29 Sep 2016, 10:19 PM IST
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