IEA trims 2011 oil use growth estimate, sees risks

Highlighting near record industry oil stocks in developed economies, the International Energy Agency said global oil supply was more than sufficient to meet current and expected demand.

“By any measure we have a very well supplied market," said David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division. “There is a significant cushion of oil supply to cope with unforeseen changes and the risks are very much to the downside."

“If the world economy slows, oil demand could be quite a bit lower," he added.

The IEA, which advises major industrial countries on energy policy, said global oil demand would average around 86.62 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2010, almost a 1.9 million bpd increase year-on-year which was 40,000 bpd higher than estimated in its last monthly report.

In 2011, consumption is forecast to rise to 87.89 million bpd, up almost 1.3 million bpd year-on-year. It said demand growth next year would be 50,000 bpd lower than last month’s estimate.

The IEA raised its estimate of 2010 demand for crude oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) by around 100,000 bpd to 28.9 million bpd, saying consumption had risen a little in several developed Western economies and in the Asia-Pacific region.

But oil stocks were at very high levels.

It said oil stocks in the developed economies of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) had risen to the equivalent of 61.4 days of forward demand by the end of July, from 61.0 days at the end of June.

OECD industry stocks rose 19.0 million barrels to 2.785 billion barrels in July to near record high levels recorded in 1998, it said.

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