The message in IIP numbers
For the real picture of industrial activity, one will have to look at the numbers over the longer term
The November Index of Industrial Production (IIP) number was a big disappointment; but is wallowing in misery over a 3.2% industrial contraction overdoing it? Is it as silly as euphoria over the 9.9% growth in October? Because of the Diwali effect, it’s best to average the two growth numbers, which gives us 3.4% year-on-year growth for October-November 2015. That’s quite a bit lower than the 3.9% year-on-year average growth for April-November, which suggests a distinct slowdown in the industrial sector.
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