Manufacturing growth during April-July 2016, according to Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, is not only lower than in the corresponding period of the last two years, but also lower than in 2013-14 and 2012-13, when GDP (gross domestic product) growth was much weaker.

Chart 1 has the details.

Growth in mining and electricity pulled up overall industrial production. Nevertheless, industrial production growth for the first four months of the current fiscal year was the lowest in the last four years.

It’s true that much of the blame for slow manufacturing growth can be laid at the door of very sluggish investment demand.

But, as chart 2 shows, growth in consumer non-durables too has been negative this fiscal year.

The upshot: total consumer goods production is lower than over the April-July period last year and also lower than in 2012-13. It is only consumer durables, the consumption of which is financed by banks, that is holding the fort.

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