Why there is no stopping Boko Haram

The only thing more terrifying than Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram’s abduction of over 200 schoolgirls is the thought that nothing can be done to get them back unharmed or that such acts cannot be prevented in the future.

By brazenly admitting to abducting the girls from their school in Borno, in northeastern Nigeria and declaring that the girls will be sold in the market as slaves, Boko Haram has illustrated how confident the group is that the Nigerian government can’t stop them. Indeed, as international outrage over the incident increased, so did the organization’s violent attacks. On Wednesday the terrorist organization attacked another town in northeastern Nigeria killing hundreds and abducted 11 more girls.

A world that had become accustomed to news of the usual manifestations of terror from groups claiming to act in the name of Islam—suicide bombings, explosions, targeted killings—has been given a rude jolt by this new act of perversion.

Boko Haram was founded in 2001 by controversial cleric and sect leader Mohammed Yusuf . The group’s ultimate aim is to remove the current government and establish Sharia in the country. Two broad reasons led to the rise of Boko Haram:

1) Grave ethnic conflicts with the Christian population in the country. The group criticizes “the validity of a secular state, non-Muslim state representation and corrupt Islamic leaders, favouring a return to Islamic authority in politics.” (Benjamin S. Eveslage, “Clarifying Boko Haram’s Transnational Intentions, Using Content Analysis of Public Statements”, Perspectives on Terrorism, Volume 7, Issue 5, page 48).

2) The stark inequality that a corrupt leadership has perpetuated over the years. According to estimates “between 1960 and 1999, Nigerian leaders siphoned more than $440 billion out of the economy” (Eveslage, page 50). Nigeria is one of the fastest growing economies of the world but close to 63% of its population lives on less than $1 a day.

Neglect by the state government has given ample opportunity to non-state actors such as Boko Haram to increase its influence and support base in the country. By claiming to fight a hostile state, Boko Haram gave many Nigerians the impression that someone cares.

However, as with any terrorist organization, these are mere illusions.

The group has become decidedly more violent after the killing of its founder in 2009. After Yusuf’s death, Abubakar Shekau, the current leader of the group took charge. Shekau is known to be much more violent than Yusuf as was evident from the statement he released recently, “until we soak the ground of Nigeria with Christian blood and so-called Muslims contradicting Islam. After we have killed, killed, killed, and get fatigued…then we will open prison and imprison the rest. Infidels have no value”.

Shekau’s impunity and the scale of Boko Haram’s latest attack begs the question why is nothing being done to stop these people? How is it that more than 200 girls have been easily abducted from a school and no one in position of authority is even capable of mounting a decent counter-offensive to find these girls?

There are three complex answers to these questions.

The first has to do with the nature of a terrorist organization. In a usual set up, the leadership of any terror outfit faces a trade-off between maintaining the organization’s security and controlling dispersed operatives on the ground.

For example., if the leader of a terrorist organization, A, has to keep tabs on his operatives B,C, and D spread in different areas, A will have to establish some communication channel with B,C, and D; or risk coming out into the field himself, which is unlikely. If the former happens, that is there is some communication, then it will leave some trail—electronic or paper—which can be traced or some conversation that can intercepted.

In a country with strong state machinery and intelligence services, this is not only possible but is part of the process by which terrorist organizations are checked. In Nigeria, both don’t exist.

Jacob Shapiro, a specialist on terrorist organizations at Princeton University says that the increased pressure on Boko Haram is bad news, as “increased pressure will likely lead to a period of increased violence as leaders give up some control to seek security, thereby allowing their most extreme members even more leeway”. This has become evident after the group again attacked a town on Wednesday and abducted more girls.

Second, the Nigerian government made a strategic mistake when it killed the less violent Mohammad Yusuf in 2009.

In an interview in the Nigerian newspaper Daily Independent , Ona Ekhomu, a security expert and president of Association of Industrial and Safety Security Operators of Nigeria, explains why killing Yusuf was an error: “In an insurgency or in any crisis situation, you never kill the head of the group, you always keep the head alive, because, you need someone to negotiate with, you need somebody to talk with… Mohammed Yusuf, their leader then, didn’t believe in violence…intelligence sources knew that Shekau was a warrior; he was a fighter and Shekau had always wanted to fight. But it was Yusuf that was keeping him in check.” Now, if the state authorities go after Shekau the group might splinter further and the incidence of violence will just shoot up.

Third, it is tempting to think of foreign intervention as the panacea that might resolve this problem, but it is not so simple. For one, the West, especially the US, is not going to engage in large-scale military operations anywhere after Iraq and Afghanistan. So Nigeria is essentially left to its own ineffective devices. What’s more, can Western security personnel successfully scour the rough terrain that Boko Haram is familiar with and which even the Nigerians can’t seem to access?

If the western countries do intervene, the group, whose very existence is based on opposing Western influence, is going to retaliate with harsher attacks. Is that a chance worth taking?

A dismal outlook? Yes. But unless the state makes systematically wiping out Boko Haram its top priority, Nigeria will have to brace for more such mindless, violent crimes.