The ascendancy of the global South
Apart from Brazil, India and China, at least 40 countries of the South made gains on the Human Development Index
The elevation of a Jesuit from Argentina to the highest rank of the tradition-bound Roman Catholic church—arguably one of the most conservative and orthodox institutions of the established world order—is the clearest sign of the ascendency of the global South. For followers of other faiths and non-believers, however, this dramatic shift was highlighted by another more secular ritual: the release of the 2013 Human Development Report by the United Nations Development Programme.
Aptly titled The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World, the report notes: “For the first time in 150 years, the combined output of the developing world’s three leading economies—Brazil, China and India—is about equal to the combined GDP of the long-standing industrial powers of the North–Canada, France Germany, Italy, the UK and the US (six of the G-7)." In addition, these three countries have also dramatically reduced the proportion of their “income poor" population between 1990 and today with China making the most impressive reduction from 60.2% to less than 13.1% and India being the laggard with a decline from 49.4% to a mere 32.7%. The report, which measures the human development index (HDI) of a country based on education, health and income parameters, also recorded the rapid rise of the middle class in the global South. None of this is new or unknown; it merely endorses the well-established trend lines observed by other similar reports.
There are, however, at least three revelations of significance in the 2013 report. First, apart from Brazil, India and China, at least 40 other countries of the South made gains on the HDI between 1990 and 2012. These countries were as varied as Uganda, Bangladesh, Laos and Mexico as well as countries recovering from violent turmoil, such as Rwanda and Tunisia. In fact, of the 132 countries covered, only two—Lesotho and Zimbabwe—had lower HDI value in 2012 than in 1990.
Second, countries that have improved their HDI did so on account of three principal drivers: “a proactive developmental stage, tapping of global markets and determined social policy and innovation". Equally important is the direct correlation between these three drivers, particularly the gradual but deliberate integration with the world economy.
Third, South-South cooperation, including investment, finance, technology transfer, and trade (which rose from 8.1% in 1980 to 26.7% of total world trade), were key new factors in facilitating the economic growth of the global South.
To sustain the gains made in human development, the report identifies four areas for particular attention: “enhancing equity, including on gender dimension; enabling greater voice and participation of citizens, including youth; confronting environmental pressures; and managing demographic change". Their relevance for India is evident in the spate of civil society-led movements calling for progress in all these areas and the excruciatingly hesitant response of India’s polity. The report also encourages the establishment of new institutions to facilitate regional integration and further strengthen South-South cooperation. It calls on emerging powers in the global South, like India, to lead by example not just domestically but also regionally and globally. At the same time, the report boldly points out the need for the outdated global governance structures to be reformed to reflect the new economic and geopolitical realities.
While this will, doubtless, sound like sweet music to New Delhi, it comes with the important caveat for India to shoulder the responsibility of leadership and governance at the domestic, regional and global level. Given the appalling state of the Indian polity and the reluctance to take on any kind of leadership role, this may well require divine intervention.
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