Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s much awaited US visit has finally come to an end. From something as insignificant as the prime minister fasting during Navratri to the media blitz covering his speech at Madison Square Garden, Modi’s US trip packed all the right punches. Well, almost.
Amidst all the glamour, the talks with US President Barack Obama seem to have become a mere sideshow to Modi signalling to the world that a strong Indian prime minister has arrived on the international stage.
Before Modi’s US trip, this paper had argued that there are limits to a deeper US-India strategic relationship. Considering the inertia that both countries showed towards making this a strong partnership in the last few years, coupled with Obama’s preoccupation with multiple crises and the fact that furthering relations with India was not a priority for him, this was not wholly unexpected.
Yes, there was a vision statement, a joint oped by the two leaders in the Washington Post and a joint statement after they met at the White House. But what did all of it say?
There were the usual generalities about a strategic partnership, bilateral cooperation, being natural partners, great democracies and all-round praise for great political leaders of both countries.
There was a veiled reference to China when both countries agreed to “intensify cooperation in maritime security to ensure freedom of navigation”. Japan has been stressing on this for years, and well, China has been going about its business as usual.
There was another veiled reference to Pakistan “to disrupt all financial and tactical support for networks such as Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, the D-Company, and the Haqqanis”. But again, we have heard this before. We have also seen complete unwillingness on Pakistan’s part to stop supporting terrorists and on the part of the US to pressurize Pakistan to do so. It is still early days to say if the Modi government would do so either. But if our efforts will be limited to joint statements with the US which rely on Pakistan’s goodwill to fight terrorists it creates and shelters, it is a gloomy picture.
On civil nuclear cooperation, “the two leaders...looked forward to advancing the dialogue to discuss all implementation issues, including but not limited to administrative issues, liability, technical issues, and licensing to facilitate the establishment of nuclear parks”. That might be a good sign depending on whether such a dialogue happens any time soon. The last time Obama met an Indian prime minister, both similarly pledged their commitment towards implementing civilian nuclear cooperation and we are yet to see words translate into actions.
New Wine, Old Bottle?
Much has changed in India-US relations in the last 20 years. The traditional hostility is long gone. But mutual suspicions remain in spite of huge investment of political capital by leaders of both countries.
Any Democrat in the White House spends his first term chasing the usual projects—healthcare, peace in the Middle East, nuclear non-proliferation and, let’s not forget this one, building a partnership with China. India does not figure in any of the checkboxes. Then in the second half of the second term, India is re-discovered. This is what happened in Bill Clinton’s time. Obama did not change the script, he merely rearranged the sentences. He visited India in 2009 but nothing big took place. Manmohan Singh visited him later, to great atmospherics (as always with things Indian), again to no great effect.
The truth about India-US ties is that they will mature over time. American impatience is understandable but then the US needs to understand where India finds itself. New Delhi cannot embrace the US against China in the same manner as it does with Japan. There is no credible assurance from the US that it will not cut a deal with Beijing on a host of issues, including India’s worst nightmare, letting its big neighbour march all over in South Asia. These fears, even if the US is friendly to India, cannot be ruled out. Calmer second terms of US presidents bring the two countries closer but that is like reinventing things. So it has been with Obama.
Modi’s meeting with business heads might well turn out to be the most important outcome of his US visit. By having clear one-on-one interactions with chief executive officers of American companies, Modi has firmly signalled his focus on getting investments into India and his willingness to remove any roadblocks that US firms might face. He has to come back and get cracking to change things on the ground instead of just stating his intentions.
Unlike China or Japan, there was no announcement regarding specific US investments in India. But that is also because the US leaves investment decisions largely to the private sector. To that extent, Modi has got a favourable response from the American private sector and this will truly be good for both India and the US.
Countries ought to be realistic about their expectations of each other. Given that he is in the second half of his second term as the US president, Obama probably has few incentives to expect much from or care too much about India. The world in Clinton’s day allowed him to give a push to relations with India. Obama’s troubles are never ending. Given that Modi’s term is just starting, and his past record of valuing business and investment as the key drivers of growth, the Indian prime minister might have well got what he wanted from this trip.
It is crucial to note, therefore, that the India-US relationship is not one of the phoenix rising from the ashes, it is about catching the last rays of a setting sun.
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