BackCool tidings from the 66th parallel
The decision of the Arctic Council to grant India observer status is likely to have a profound impact
Premium(AFP)
The spate of high-level foreign dignitaries flocking to India over summer, despite the record-breaking temperatures, is indicative of New Delhi’s emergence as one of the hottest destinations in regional and global politics.
In this flurry of visitors, however, the cool tidings from north of the 66th Parallel (the longitude marking the Arctic Circle) that India has been admitted as an observer to the Arctic Council made as much impact as an ice cube in the scorching sun. The ministry of external affairs barely acknowledged this development.
Yet, the decision of the Arctic Council to grant India observer status—along with China, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea and Singapore—at its eighth ministerial meeting in Kiruna (Sweden) is likely to have a profound impact on the future of India, the Arctic and global governance.
The Arctic, according to some estimates, holds 40% of global oil and gas reserves and significant reserves of other strategic resources, including coal, zinc and silver. Iceland, for instance, has huge deposits of uranium, making it, potentially, one of the biggest sources of this crucial element. Similarly, the Arctic thaw—primarily the result of global warming—has made the dream of 18th and 19th century explorers of a polar sea passage a reality. Since 2010, shipping through the North-East Passage, the shortest route for the Pacific countries to the Atlantic, has increased tenfold.
India’s status is recognition of its polar scientific credentials established in Antarctica; its growing economic (especially as a consumer of energy and natural resources) and political (particularly in climate change negotiations) clout; its increasing maritime footprint; and as a counterweight to China’s global ambitions—the recent border spat with China followed by the conciliatory tone of premier Li Keqiang’s visit might well have strengthened this perception.
Indeed, although both Canada and Russia—who possess the largest real estate in the Arctic region—were initially reluctant to expand the Council to allow observers, they, along with the US, were reportedly unwilling to admit China without including India.
Some Indian experts have argued that New Delhi should lead the establishment of an Arctic Treaty (similar to the Antarctic Treaty), which recognizes the region as global commons, to preserve its fragile ecosystem and prevent further melting of the ice caps, which will have a profound impact on global climate change.
Despite the strong merits of the global commons case, that ship has already sailed.
In fact, India’s observer status on the Council weakens this approach. Instead, there is a possibility that the more exploitative Arctic Council approach might also lead to the unravelling of the Antarctic Treaty.
Consequently, India might consider an alternative approach with two distinct strands: first, instead of seeking exceptions for itself, India should work with other Council members to shape rules to ensure that the exploitation of the Arctic region does not benefit some countries, particularly China, more than others. In addition, the norms should also seek to limit the impact of the Arctic exploitation on climate change.
Secondly, to ensure its right of navigation through this sea route and access to the resources, preferably in partnership with some of the original Council members, India might use its new observer status to build and strengthen its expertise of practically working in this region. This would be akin to its approach in the Antarctic and would strengthen its case in the Arctic. A good start would be for New Delhi to encourage Indians to join the growing number of tourists (over 50,000 and counting) to the region. It would at least provide them respite from the sweltering heat at home.
Comments are welcome at otherviews@livemint.com
W.P.S. Sidhu is a senior fellow at the Center on International Cooperation, New York University. He writes on strategic affairs every fortnight.
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