The limits to a India-US partnership
Deeper bilateral ties between India and the US will have to wait for another American president
Many years ago on a winter day in New Delhi, Barack Obama said, “the relationship between the United States and India—bound by our shared interests and our shared values—will be one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century. This is the partnership I’ve come here to build.” It will make for fanciful writing to say “a lot has changed since then”, except that nothing much has really.
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins his maiden visit to the US, the most that can be said about the India-US strategic relationship is that both countries have actively indulged in cold shouldering each other for a while now. In fact, the diplomatic row following Indian Foreign Service officer Devyani Khobragade’s arrest, differences over Afghanistan’s security, and Indian suspicions about American dealings with China, signal more caution than friendship.
Given this background, it is curious that Modi’s visit to the US this week is being touted as the stuff of dreams. The prime minister, viewed more aggressive and decisive than his predecessor, is expected to take the India-US partnership to the next level and make it the “one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century”, to use Obama’s words.
This expectation, however, is naive, simplistic and overtly optimistic about a strong India-US partnership, especially under Obama. The US president has two years left in office. He has managed his last term and the first half of the second one by remaining largely detached from the problems of the world. Increasingly, he has signalled to countries that their security is their own responsibility. Gone are the days when a security guarantee from the US translated into an automatic defence mechanism. Ukraine is a case in point.
India’s biggest threat economically and strategically is China. The US has not shown any interest in neutralizing the Asian giant. In fact, under Obama, American policy has been confused: It has veered from seeking a condominium with Beijing, to a halfhearted “pivot” in Asia against China, and now to a resigned indifference. India, in contrast, shares a volatile and disputed border with China and cannot afford any extremes. In this context, countering China, the centrepiece of strategic hopes during the George Bush Jr. years, is no longer on the table. Why, then, should India be hopeful that something significant will come out of the Modi-Obama meeting, when it is not expected to go beyond rhetoric and catchy headlines?
One area where there is hope for improvement is in economic relations. Unlike the previous government which were virtually socialist in its outlook, Modi realizes the value of foreign investment. The spate of complaints that American businesses had—ranging from investment barriers to red tape—have a much better chance of redressal under Modi. India has to share a part of the blame. The US did heavy lifting in bringing India into the global nuclear fold.
Instead of clearing the decks for US investment in nuclear energy, India passed a nuclear liability law under which no global vendor will participate in the lucrative nuclear energy market. The Modi government should re-think this law and tweak it—if not repeal it. Everyone stands to gain from it, including energy starved India.
This is as far as India and the US can progress for now. A deeper relationship will have to wait for another American president. Obama rode to power on a wave opposing Bush. The usually shielded American foreign policy was not immune from this change in outlook. From an aggressive unilateralism, the US moved to caution and isolation under Obama. The vision of a tighter fit between US and Indian goals in Asia was lost in this transition. Obama is unlikely to change while Modi, too, is pragmatic in his own way.
From Washington, the world looks to be a rosy place. Not so from New Delhi. Modi’s five-year term has just begun. This is the time to take a realistic view of abilities, weaknesses, allies and foes.
What can be expected from Modi’s visit to the US? Tell us at views@livemint.com
Follow Mint Opinion on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Mint_Opinion
Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Business NewsOpinionThe limits to a India-US partnership
First Published:22 Sep 2014, 07:15 PM IST
- Top Gainers
- Top Losers
- 52 Week High