BackIndia begins to win its demographic battle
Urbanization as well as rising incomes prove to be the best contraceptives
Premium(Illustration by Jayachandran/Mint)
A book written by Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University in 1968 had warned that the earth would soon be overwhelmed by a massive increase in population. “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death," he had famously warned. The result was a chilling piece of policy analysis that was also to be found in another notorious book by William Paddock and Paul Paddock. These Malthusians argued that the US government should focus food aid only on those countries that had good chances of getting their population growth under control. The rest could starve. India had a prominent place in the second group of basket cases where the US was advised not to waste its food aid.
What has happened since then is well known. The Indian population has doubled but hunger has come down to almost negligible levels. New farming technologies have ensured that mass famine has been averted despite rapid population growth. That has never quite banished the old worries about a global population bomb, and it is quite reasonable to assume that there would be some theoretical demographic point at which the earth’s resources are inadequate to support human civilization.
It is against this backdrop that a provocative new research paper by Deutsche Bank economist Sanjeev Sanyal predicts that the global population will begin to decline earlier than anticipated by the United Nations. He predicts that the number of people on earth will peak at 8.7 billion in 2055; global population will then drop by an estimated 700 million by the end of the century. It will be 2.8 billion lower than what the United Nations currently predicts. “Population may keep growing for a few more decades from rising longevity but, reproductively speaking, our species will no longer be expanding," writes Sanyal. He predicts that there will be 1.52 billion Indians in 2050 but the number will drop to 1.45 billion in 2100. Both numbers are around 100 million lower than current global forecasts.
Indian population data also suggests that we are in the midst of a rapid demographic transition. And while Sanyal has focused on nationwide data in his research note, it is also useful to look at state-level demographic data in India to get an idea of how quickly the country can move to a stable population. The key indicator is what is called the total fertility rate (TFR), or the number of children per woman over her reproductive life. It is usually assumed that countries with a TFR of below 2.1 will see population declines in the future.
In 2010, India, as a whole, had a total fertility rate of 2.5, only slightly higher than the replacement rate. But what is significant is that half the top 20 states have a TFR below 2.1. The main population pressure comes from five large northern states—Uttar Pradesh (3.5), Bihar (3.7), Madhya Pradesh (3.2) and Rajasthan (3.1) and Jharkhand (3). These five states account for about one-third of the total national population, and thus skew the national numbers. But fertility rates in even these laggard states have been dropping—but not rapidly enough.
It is not hard to guess why some states have made better progress in reducing fertility than others. The ones that are rapidly moving to having stable populations are those that have had higher economic growth and greater urbanization. The data across states shows that urban areas have far lower fertility levels than the rural areas. For example, urban Himachal Pradesh and West Bengal have TFRs of only 1.3, almost on par with those seen in the rich countries. This only strengthens the case for the usual assumption among demographers that urbanization is the best contraceptive.
India will perhaps have 350 million more people before its population peaks in around four decades’ time, so there will be continuing pressure on land, water and forests. But the most extreme Malthusian fears of a ticking population bomb should start receding. The chilling fears of the 1970s will perhaps be used as examples of unwarranted fears. However, the challenge of providing jobs for this growing population will continue to be a daunting one, but the fact that India will have a young population for far longer than China could act as a catalyst for a manufacturing renaissance here.
Is it time to bury the bogey of overpopulation? Tell us at views@livemint.com
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