BackNarendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif reset the optics
It is clear that the two have created an enabling environment for dialogue, but we should remember this is a necessary and not a sufficient condition for peace
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The diplomatic dare of Narendra Modi on Christmas has got the chatterati, especially on social media, going; like everything about Modi, opinion is split down the middle. The apparently spontaneous gesture of dropping by in Lahore—to greet and meet his previously estranged counterpart Nawaz Sharif—on the way back from his official visit to Afghanistan only added to the drama.
Undoubtedly, it was a moment that caught most of us pleasantly unawares (ignoring the fact that it also provided relief to the Bharatiya Janata Party, or the BJP, which otherwise had been at the receiving end of considerable bad press). The stunning turn—like Modi did by inviting all South Asian heads of state, including Sharif, for his government’s swearing-in ceremony—has foxed hawks and doves alike. Consequently, interpretations will both vary and differ, especially since there is no tangible in the form of a joint statement. Having said so, here are five takeaways.
One, while it is tempting to extend all the credit to Modi, that would be grossly unfair. Just like it takes two hands to clap, half the credit has to accrue to Sharif. Let us not forget that it was Sharif who had to absorb the displeasure of the powerful military establishment in his country when he accepted the invite to attend the government-formation ceremony at the Rashtrapati Bhavan last year.
While the Lahore meeting was a surprise to all of us, I am sure it was not to the top diplomatic establishment on either side. Neither Sharif nor Modi are travelling salesmen that they will take abrupt detours to another country—in this case, Pakistan, a country with which India has officially engaged in war thrice and unofficially continues to have violent skirmishes.
The bonhomie—publicly holding hands and walking around and turning up for Sharif’s granddaughter’s wedding—introduces a personal twist to the relationship and smothers negatives for now. So, the first thing the two leaders have achieved is to get the optics right; and the fact that the powerful Pakistan Army has not said anything to the contrary suggests that it is tacitly on board. A dialogue in a vitiated environment and an army pulling in the opposite is simply impossible to conceive, leave alone carry through.
Second, Modi and Sharif have in a way pre-empted their otherwise scheduled meeting at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc). But for the weekend’s casual stopover, it would have been Modi’s first official visit to Pakistan and the first by an Indian prime minister in 11 years. Given the circumstances, it would most certainly have burdened the two leaders to show deliverables; and given the testy state of relations, this could most certainly be ruled out for now—leaving both vulnerable to critics. They may have actually brightened prospects at Saarc.
Third, leading on from above, the two countries seemed to have taken a strategic call to restrict public disclosure of their engagements to a need to know basis. Almost every time they have come up with a joint statement in the past, hawks from either side have made their own skewed interpretations, making it almost politically impossible for them to act on it.
Fourth, it is a fact that if there is an Indian political party that can ink a longstanding deal with Pakistan without inviting the charge of a sell-out, it has to be the BJP. Given its right-wing ideological predilections, it enjoys an advantage.
This is exactly why Atal Bihari Vajpayee could show similar diplomatic dare in taking the bus to Lahore and later make a second trip, despite the overhang of the Kargil misadventure. And also why the Congress, despite Manmohan Singh’s deep commitment to a peaceful relationship with Pakistan, has been unable to make any headway.
Fifth, there has to be considerable caution in not going overboard. Yes, the Modi-Sharif meeting is a real big deal. The unorthodox conduct of the two leaders by inducting the personal into an official engagement has indeed leant new dynamism and hope to reviving peace between these otherwise eternal enemy nations. But don’t forget, the two countries bring enormous baggage to the negotiating table; hence it will be foolish to expect a quick fix, which in any case can’t be enduring.
In the final analysis, it is clear, therefore, that Modi and Sharif have indeed created an enabling environment for dialogue. But we should not forget that this is a necessary and not a sufficient condition for peace between the two countries.
Anil Padmanabhan is deputy managing editor of Mint and writes every week on the intersection of politics and economics. Comments are welcome at capitalcalculus@livemint.com.
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